Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:09:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x6643…1d29 sports 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$562 (-38%) realized −$480 · open −$82
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%13W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65
7 days−$410
14 days−$269
30 days−$263
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$337
other 23% −$147
tech 13% −$182
politics 9% +$13
crypto 1% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-41.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -69.5% -72.4% 0% 0% -78.9%
≤30d 23 +52.6% +38.1% 39% 39% -38.1%
≤90d 32 +45.2% +31.3% 41% 41% -40.5%
all 72 -35.5% -41.6% 18% 18% -52.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.6% 18% -52.5%
10% -47.2% 17% -57.0%
15% -52.3% 11% -61.2%
20% -57.0% 11% -65.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$14 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized−$480
Unrealized−$82
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses13 / 59
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions3
Markets (closed)72 / 75
History coverage112d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? No 11¢ 9¢ $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $42.5B by June 30? Yes 31¢ 16¢ $100 $51 −$49 (-49%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$65 -64%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $102 −$14 -14%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $165 −$161 -98%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $175 −$169 -97%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -92%
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -95%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -42%
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $4 $0 -6%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$6 -59%
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison Jun 11 $9 −$7 -84%
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison? Jun 11 $14 −$10 -71%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $46 +$13 +29%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $17 +$5 +32%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 09 $10 +$20 +197%
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in priso Jun 06 $13 −$11 -81%
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 -29%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $9 +$2 +28%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $8 $0 -4%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $8 +$4 +57%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $8 +$134 +1614%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 06 $100 +$12 +12%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $10 +$6 +62%
Knicks vs. Thunder Mar 30 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Serie A league? Mar 30 $4 +$4 +115%
Will Sassuolo be relegated from Serie A after the 2025-26 season? Mar 30 $5 −$4 -85%
Will Cagliari be relegated from Serie A after the 2025-26 season? Mar 30 $6 −$4 -61%
Will Valencia be relegated from La Liga after the 2025–26 season? Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Augsburg be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 se Mar 21 $7 −$5 -74%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Mar 21 $6 +$6 +104%
BitBoy convicted? Mar 21 $10 +$6 +64%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 21 $6 +$28 +436%
Will Hamburger SV be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 s Mar 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Osasuna be relegated from La Liga after the 2025–26 season? Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Parma be relegated from Serie A after the 2025-26 season? Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Atalanta finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season? Mar 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Lorient be relegated from Ligue 1 after the 2025–26 season? Mar 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Brest be relegated from Ligue 1 after the 2025–26 season? Mar 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026? Mar 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Union Berlin be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 s Mar 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Getafe be relegated from La Liga after the 2025–26 season? Mar 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Espanyol be relegated from La Liga after the 2025–26 season? Mar 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Fulham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 202 Mar 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026? Mar 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Brentford be relegated from the English Premier League after the Mar 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Crystal Palace be relegated from the English Premier League after Mar 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Brighton be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 Mar 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Manchester United finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Prem Mar 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Arsenal finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League Mar 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $37 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 33¢ $87 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $102 4d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $113 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 14¢ $71 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 16¢ $103 6d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY No 11¢ $104 6d
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $42.5B by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $103 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $52 7d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 7d
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 7d
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 52¢ $1 7d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 7d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 7d
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 99¢ $0 7d
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 52¢ $11 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 27¢ $59 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 17¢ $15 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 22¢ $30 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 45¢ $22 9d
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 33¢ $17 9d
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in priso SELL Yes 2¢ $2 12d
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 12d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 8¢ $11 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.17 · official $133.17 (match) · 296 history records