Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:22:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x664a…fc5f sports 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 17d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (196 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$50,924 (-25%) realized −$50,369 · open −$555
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate42%45W / 63L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,800per market
Trades / day196.0pace
Fees−$1,795est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$736now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$9,578
other 29% −$13,026
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (196 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 -12.4% -20.8% 41% 26% -20.3%
≤30d 108 -12.0% -20.4% 42% 27% -19.7%
≤90d 108 -12.0% -20.4% 42% 27% -19.7%
all 108 -12.0% -20.4% 42% 27% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover196.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.4% 27% -19.7%
10% -28.0% 21% -27.4%
15% ← realistic here -35.0% 11% -34.4%
20% -41.3% 6% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$2,106) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
23.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$550 vs −$743 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$736
Realized−$50,369
Unrealized−$555
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses45 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$1,795
Open positions5
Markets (closed)108 / 113
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$1,800
Trades / day196.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm Seattle Storm 97¢ 100¢ $649 $669 +$20 (+3%)
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Travelers Championship? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $43 $46 +$3 (+7%)
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Travelers Championship? No 67¢ 69¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+4%)
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 Travelers Championship? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $6 +$5 (+650%)
Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces Dallas Wings 11¢ 0¢ $583 $3 −$581 (-100%)
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Travelers Championship? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Clutchain Female vs MIBR fe (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch Jun 26 $239 +$176 +74%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra Jun 26 $1,981 −$7 -0%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 26 $184 +$38 +20%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 26 $509 −$78 -15%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 26 $241 +$25 +10%
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $327 −$225 -69%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 26 $7,501 +$1,823 +24%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 26 $53 −$52 -99%
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Game Hunters - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $383 −$83 -22%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 26 $338 −$13 -4%
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 26 $87 −$74 -85%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $391 +$52 +13%
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Game Hunters - Map 1 Winner Jun 26 $7 +$3 +36%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 26 $1,567 +$741 +47%
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North Ameri Jun 26 $452 −$346 -76%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $624 +$101 +16%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $1,526 +$2,129 +140%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $5 $0 +10%
Valorant: Ghools Esports vs Team Liquid Academy (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag Jun 25 $48 −$42 -88%
Valorant: Ghools Esports vs Team Liquid Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $359 −$44 -12%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2,483 −$2,306 -93%
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Game Hunters (BO3) - Thunderpick Wor Jun 25 $152 −$147 -96%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $32,025 −$12,734 -40%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $862 −$185 -22%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $9,490 −$9,136 -96%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $6,705 +$1,967 +29%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 25 $355 −$264 -74%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-5.5) Jun 25 $15 +$1 +10%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 25 $732 −$230 -31%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-4.5) Jun 25 $293 +$24 +8%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-3.5) Jun 25 $65 −$35 -54%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $211 −$192 -91%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $576 $0 +0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $300 +$4 +2%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 25 $2,106 −$355 -17%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 25 $1,500 −$1,469 -98%
Valorant: Ghools Esports vs Team Liquid Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $300 +$27 +9%
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag Jun 25 $1,250 −$22 -2%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $3,819 +$866 +23%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $6,646 −$287 -4%
Valorant: Barça eSports vs CGN Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group Jun 25 $159 −$42 -27%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $617 −$131 -21%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $3,385 −$1,318 -39%
Valorant: Barça eSports vs CGN Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $505 −$24 -5%
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $308 +$176 +57%
Valorant: Barça eSports vs CGN Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $42 −$7 -17%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $431 +$1,183 +274%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $441 +$162 +37%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $1,400 −$656 -47%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick W Jun 25 $40 −$38 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 97¢ $364 35m
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 97¢ $284 35m
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm SELL Seattle Storm 99¢ $3,107 36m
Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Dallas Wings 4¢ $0 38m
Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Dallas Wings 7¢ $10 38m
Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Dallas Wings 7¢ $9 38m
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm SELL Seattle Storm 94¢ $4 43m
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm SELL Seattle Storm 95¢ $1 48m
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm SELL Seattle Storm 95¢ $133 48m
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm SELL Seattle Storm 95¢ $86 48m
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm SELL Seattle Storm 95¢ $15 48m
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 74¢ $16 53m
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm SELL Seattle Storm 77¢ $23 53m
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm SELL Seattle Storm 77¢ $54 54m
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm SELL Seattle Storm 77¢ $68 54m
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm SELL Seattle Storm 76¢ $155 54m
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm SELL Seattle Storm 76¢ $8 54m
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm SELL Seattle Storm 76¢ $114 55m
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 80¢ $1,012 56m
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 80¢ $221 56m
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 80¢ $50 56m
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 80¢ $118 56m
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 80¢ $445 56m
Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Dallas Wings 13¢ $214 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Dallas Wings 13¢ $10 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Dallas Wings 13¢ $71 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Dallas Wings 13¢ $13 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Dallas Wings 13¢ $41 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Dallas Wings 13¢ $14 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Dallas Wings 13¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $735.96 · official $733.70 (match) · 3500 history records