Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:59:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x664c…d6b0 other 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 427d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$24 (-1%) realized +$36 · open −$60
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate16%9W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$562
7 days−$562
14 days+$339
30 days+$339
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$630
world 21% −$427
sports 14% +$913
crypto 4% −$43
tech 0% −$10
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -73.8% -76.3% 8% 8% -45.9%
≤30d 25 +17.2% +6.0% 20% 20% +6.8%
≤90d 25 +17.2% +6.0% 20% 20% +6.8%
all 57 -13.4% -21.6% 16% 12% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 12% -14.4%
10% -29.1% 11% -22.6%
15% -36.0% 11% -30.1%
20% -42.3% 11% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 82% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -52% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$193 vs −$39 · ×4.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

427d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$36
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses9 / 48
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)57 / 60
History coverage427d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $50 $32 −$18 (-36%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $50 $31 −$19 (-38%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $36 $13 −$23 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $184 −$172 -94%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $160 −$150 -94%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $107 −$100 -94%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 21 $119 −$119 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 21 $133 −$133 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $54 −$54 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $53 −$53 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 21 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 21 $109 −$109 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $265 +$568 +214%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $49 +$42 +86%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $53 −$4 -7%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $53 +$51 +97%
Will the State of the Union address be delayed? Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-25? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $53 +$178 +334%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $53 +$857 +1604%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Mar 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Feb 25 $26 −$2 -6%
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by January 9, 2026? Feb 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the US strike Iran next? Feb 14 $140 −$140 -100%
Will MrBeast's celebrity challenge video get between 30 and 31 million Feb 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? Feb 14 $109 −$109 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Feb 14 $155 −$155 -100%
Will MrBeast's celebrity challenge video get between 32 and 33 million Feb 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next pop be elected in 7 or more days? Feb 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Jensen Huang say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times d Feb 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 9, 2026? Feb 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Maduro mugshot released by January 9? Feb 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? Feb 14 $15 −$15 -100%
US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026? Feb 14 $10 +$38 +376%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 14 $39 −$5 -12%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)? Feb 14 $7 −$3 -44%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in February? Feb 14 $41 −$32 -77%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Jan 15 $1 $0 -38%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Jan 15 $1 $0 -23%
Body-cam footage of Maduro capture released by Jan 31? Jan 15 $1 $0 -0%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 15 $2 −$1 -27%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 15 $2 $0 +21%
Maduro mugshot released by January 16? Jan 13 $5 −$2 -50%
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by January 31, 2026? Jan 13 $5 −$2 -35%
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 12 $31 −$8 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 2¢ $39 1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $53 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $184 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $160 28h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $107 34h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $265 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 9¢ $104 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 7¢ $32 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $53 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 11¢ $53 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $53 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $56 5d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $48 5d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 5d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 5d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $28 5d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $26 5d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $53 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 7d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 7d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $53 7d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 18¢ $53 7d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $53 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $49 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $30 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 48¢ $49 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $53 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.31 · official $76.39 (match) · 198 history records