Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:57:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
66 0x664d…babd other 28 markets active 5d ago coverage 738d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$140 (-5%) realized −$39 · open −$101
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%9W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$469now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$709
14 days+$145
30 days+$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$355
sports 42% +$203
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +120.0% +99.0% 80% 80% +94.3%
≤30d 15 +9.7% -0.7% 47% 47% -2.3%
≤90d 15 +9.7% -0.7% 47% 47% -2.3%
all 24 +0.5% -9.1% 38% 38% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 38% -11.7%
10% -17.8% 38% -20.1%
15% -25.8% 38% -27.8%
20% -33.0% 33% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$76 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

738d coverage
Net worth$469
Realized−$39
Unrealized−$101
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses9 / 15
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions4
Markets (closed)24 / 28
History coverage738d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 49¢ $400 $345 −$55 (-14%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 20¢ $100 $67 −$33 (-33%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $37 −$12 (-25%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $203 +$155 +76%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$75 +365%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 +$189 +93%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $182 +$301 +165%
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$58 +57%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $203 +$161 +79%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $120 −$118 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 +$56 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $121 −$120 -99%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 05 $207 −$207 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $20 +$7 +37%
Will Boston Celtics 2023-24 NBA Champions? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -86%
Will Croatia win the 2024 Euros? Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2024 Euros? Jun 14 $28 $0 -1%
Will France win the 2024 Euros? Jun 14 $30 −$3 -8%
Will Serbia win the 2024 Euros? Jun 14 $1 $0 -30%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $20 $0 -2%
zkSync airdrop by June 30? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 5d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $10 5d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $203 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $182 7d
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 7d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 7d
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 7d
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 7d
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $203 7d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 8d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 37¢ $102 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $203 8d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 8d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 9d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $51 9d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $152 9d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $101 9d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 9d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 39¢ $120 10d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $51 11d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 63¢ $121 12d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 38¢ $207 230d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) SELL T1 100¢ $27 233d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY T1 73¢ $20 233d
Will Boston Celtics 2023-24 NBA Champions? SELL No $1 739d
Will Croatia win the 2024 Euros? SELL Yes $7 739d
Will England win the 2024 Euros? SELL No 79¢ $27 739d
Will France win the 2024 Euros? SELL Yes 18¢ $27 739d
Will Serbia win the 2024 Euros? SELL Yes $1 739d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $469.12 · official $469.12 (match) · 55 history records