Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:57:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
66 0x664e…e82a sports 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 384d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8,752 (+5%) realized +$8,752 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR72%break-even
Win rate87%85W / 13L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,974per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$436est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,287
7 days+$649
14 days+$1,822
30 days+$9,458
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$7,846
other 14% +$883
politics 5% +$386
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +72%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +7.7% -2.6% 85% 85% -5.4%
≤30d 70 +12.4% +1.7% 87% 76% +1.2%
≤90d 74 +13.5% +2.7% 88% 77% +2.0%
all 98 +9.7% -0.7% 87% 72% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.7% 72% -5.1%
10% -10.2% 43% -14.2%
15% -18.9% 18% -22.5%
20% -26.9% 6% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$2,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$353 vs −$1,604 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

384d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8,752
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses85 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$436
Open positions0
Markets (closed)98 / 98
History coverage384d
Avg bet$1,974
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 98 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 21 $1,009 +$422 +42%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 21 $1,008 +$377 +37%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $871 +$289 +33%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,009 +$440 +44%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $1,007 +$275 +27%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,007 +$241 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,006 +$243 +24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,004 +$160 +16%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $122 +$34 +28%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $591 −$533 -90%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,704 −$1,700 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $1,003 +$120 +12%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,907 +$280 +15%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $699 +$783 +112%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $639 +$560 +88%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,008 −$614 -61%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,004 +$122 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,012 +$628 +62%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,008 +$362 +36%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $799 +$332 +42%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $2,005 +$147 +7%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $1,708 +$314 +18%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $1,007 +$324 +32%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $1,008 +$366 +36%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $1,010 +$445 +44%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $1,404 +$151 +11%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $994 +$460 +46%
Counter-Strike: B8 Academy vs ReThink (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Pla Jun 03 $1,243 −$1,240 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $1,003 +$120 +12%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $1,003 +$107 +11%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 30 $1,008 +$344 +34%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner May 30 $992 +$73 +7%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner May 30 $807 −$800 -99%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner May 30 $1,006 −$1,000 -99%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 30 $1,005 +$202 +20%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $1,505 +$197 +13%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 30 $1,506 +$236 +16%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $1,507 +$254 +17%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner May 29 $1,197 +$220 +18%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 28 $1,007 +$275 +27%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 28 $1,006 +$251 +25%
LoL: Solary vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - LFL Playoffs May 27 $1,003 +$108 +11%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea May 26 $1,497 +$264 +18%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 26 $1,011 +$585 +58%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 26 $996 +$228 +23%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $1,008 +$344 +34%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 25 $27 +$2 +6%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - Esports World C May 25 $1,927 +$329 +17%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 4 Winner May 25 $400 +$525 +131%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $1,431 46m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 70¢ $1,009 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $1,386 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 72¢ $1,008 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $1,160 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 74¢ $871 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,009 9h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 78¢ $1,007 19h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $2,007 36h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,249 36h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $1,006 38h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,164 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 85¢ $1,004 2d
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY TDK 78¢ $122 5d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 8¢ $58 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,704 5d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 78¢ $591 5d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 89¢ $1,003 6d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 87¢ $1,907 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 99¢ $1,482 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 46¢ $699 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 50¢ $1,015 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 99¢ $1,199 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 52¢ $639 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL Gen.G 30¢ $394 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 75¢ $1,008 7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,125 7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2,004 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,012 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 73¢ $1,008 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 194 history records