Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:10:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x6653…b6fb sports 193 markets active 3h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$49 (-2%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate37%71W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days+$1
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$69
other 9% −$34
crypto 7% −$39
world 6% +$39
finance 1% −$12
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +0.7% -8.9% 32% 32% -17.5%
≤30d 130 -8.5% -17.2% 36% 24% -15.0%
≤90d 191 -14.7% -22.8% 37% 26% -15.0%
all 191 -14.7% -22.8% 37% 26% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.8% 26% -15.0%
10% -30.2% 17% -23.1%
15% -37.0% 12% -30.5%
20% -43.1% 7% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses71 / 120
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions2
Markets (closed)191 / 193
History coverage62d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 191 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 82¢ 81¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No $1 $2 +$0 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $1 +$2 +188%
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 11 $1 +$1 +65%
ITF Zagreb: Lucija Ciric Bagaric vs Laura Mair Jun 11 $1 +$1 +119%
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 11 $2 $0 -3%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Hynek Barton Jun 11 $4 +$1 +30%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $6 +$1 +14%
ITF Zagreb: Dalila Jakupovic vs Amarissa Kiara Toth Jun 11 $4 $0 -2%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen Jun 11 $8 −$5 -62%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 10 $4 $0 -1%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $1 $0 -20%
Tucuman: Juan Bautista Torres vs Carlos Maria Zarate Jun 10 $1 $0 +20%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $2 $0 -7%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $1 $0 -1%
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 10 $7 −$1 -17%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 10 $2 −$1 -49%
Tucuman: Nick Hardt vs Bruno Fernandez Jun 10 $1 $0 -6%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $3 −$2 -78%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $1 $0 -1%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 09 $14 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$2 +58%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +40%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $4 +$6 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 23 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 22 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 22 $2 +$2 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Emilio Nava vs Pedro Martinez May 22 $5 +$1 +21%
FC CFR 1907 Cluj vs. FC Argeș Pitești: O/U 4.5 May 22 $5 −$1 -13%
Counter-Strike: Clair Obscur vs Julie&cie (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qu May 22 $5 −$1 -15%
Bengaluru 3: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Alastair Gray May 22 $5 −$1 -12%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Guiomar Maristany vs Kaitlin Quevedo May 22 $5 $0 -8%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Harmony Tan vs Linda Fruhvirtova May 22 $5 −$1 -13%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Borna Gojo vs Jurij Rodionov May 22 $5 +$1 +16%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Marina Bass May 22 $5 $0 +3%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Hugo Dell May 22 $5 −$1 -18%
CA Mineiro vs. CS Cienciano: Both Teams to Score May 21 $5 $0 -9%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $5 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 21 $5 +$1 +22%
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Daniel Altmaier May 21 $5 −$1 -17%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Mary Stoiana May 21 $5 −$1 -17%
Cervia: Andrea Guerrieri vs Carlo Alberto Caniato May 21 $5 −$1 -12%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Lukas Neumayer May 21 $5 −$1 -16%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 21 $5 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $5 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No $1 2h
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus SELL Sinja Kraus 44¢ $2 6d
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Hynek Barton SELL Alexander Shevchenko 42¢ $2 6d
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi SELL Benjamin Bonzi 72¢ $7 6d
ITF Zagreb: Dalila Jakupovic vs Amarissa Kiara Toth SELL Dalila Jakupovic 50¢ $4 6d
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen SELL Robin Montgomery 72¢ $3 6d
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen BUY Greet Minnen 27¢ $1 6d
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen BUY Greet Minnen 27¢ $1 6d
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus BUY Sinja Kraus 44¢ $1 6d
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen BUY Greet Minnen 29¢ $1 6d
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus BUY Sinja Kraus 44¢ $1 6d
ITF Zagreb: Dalila Jakupovic vs Amarissa Kiara Toth BUY Dalila Jakupovic 51¢ $1 6d
ITF Zagreb: Dalila Jakupovic vs Amarissa Kiara Toth BUY Dalila Jakupovic 51¢ $1 6d
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 60¢ $1 6d
ITF Zagreb: Dalila Jakupovic vs Amarissa Kiara Toth BUY Dalila Jakupovic 49¢ $1 6d
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Hynek Barton BUY Alexander Shevchenko 21¢ $1 6d
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 64¢ $1 6d
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 63¢ $1 6d
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 64¢ $1 6d
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 65¢ $1 6d
ITF Zagreb: Lucija Ciric Bagaric vs Laura Mair BUY Laura Mair 45¢ $1 6d
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Hynek Barton SELL Alexander Shevchenko 22¢ $3 6d
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen BUY Robin Montgomery 76¢ $1 6d
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen BUY Robin Montgomery 75¢ $1 6d
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen BUY Robin Montgomery 75¢ $1 6d
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 56¢ $1 6d
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens BUY Gabriela Ruse 60¢ $1 6d
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Hynek Barton BUY Alexander Shevchenko 19¢ $1 6d
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Hynek Barton BUY Alexander Shevchenko 19¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.48 · official $6.48 (match) · 885 history records