Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:09:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

66 0x6656…6ac4 other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$814 (-16%) realized −$776 · open −$38

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip

Net edge-33%after slip

Net WR35%break-even

Win rate40%8W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$248per market

Trades / day5.5pace

Kalshi-fit5%portable

Net worth$432now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$26

7 days−$1,031

14 days−$1,050

30 days−$1,050

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +35%

net ROI/market (all)-30.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	-18.8%	-26.6%	42%	37%	-29.4%
≤30d	20	-22.9%	-30.2%	40%	35%	-29.6%
≤90d	20	-22.9%	-30.2%	40%	35%	-29.6%
all	20	-22.9%	-30.2%	40%	35%	-29.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.5 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-30.2%	35%	-29.6%
10%	-36.9%	35%	-36.4%
15%	-43.0%	35%	-42.5%
20%	-48.6%	25%	-48.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 49% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

12% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -23% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -47% → late +2% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$136 vs −$178 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.51 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$432

Realized−$776

Unrealized−$38

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses8 / 12

Open positions1

Markets (closed)20 / 21

History coverage8d

Avg bet$248

Trades / day5.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	68¢	62¢	$470	$432	−$38 (-8%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$242	−$238	-98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$42	−$42	-100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$62	+$5	+9%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$21	+$15	+71%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$26	+$15	+57%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$567	+$219	+39%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$104	−$85	-82%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$111	−$53	-48%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$156	+$55	+36%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$105	+$139	+133%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$855	+$535	+63%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$415	−$415	-100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$697	−$242	-35%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$292	−$292	-100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$541	−$492	-91%
Uruguay to win the second half?	Jun 16	$157	+$108	+69%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$229	−$229	-100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$41	−$4	-9%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$44	−$32	-71%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$19	−$19	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	68¢	$489	1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	0¢	$4	2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	21¢	$100	5h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	20¢	$142	13h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$26	40h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$42	40h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$62	40h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	56¢	$21	40h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	65¢	$312	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$47	2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	15¢	$19	2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	74¢	$104	2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	6¢	$15	2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	21¢	$58	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$104	2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	20¢	$43	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	62¢	$94	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$104	2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	22¢	$53	2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$156	2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	41¢	$105	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	59¢	$855	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$415	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	47¢	$135	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	48¢	$321	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$697	4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	53¢	$292	4d
Uruguay to win the second half?	SELL Yes	100¢	$264	4d
Uruguay to win the second half?	BUY Yes	55¢	$157	4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	42¢	$16	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $431.99 · official $445.81 · 61 history records