Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:07:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x6657…f64d crypto 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (118 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+2%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate39%12W / 19L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day118.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (118 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -10.6% -19.1% 39% 32% -6.6%
≤30d 31 -10.6% -19.1% 39% 32% -6.6%
≤90d 31 -10.6% -19.1% 39% 32% -6.6%
all 31 -10.6% -19.1% 39% 32% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover118.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.1% 32% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here -26.8% 29% -15.5%
15% -33.9% 26% -23.7%
20% -40.4% 23% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$16 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses12 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage1d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day118.0
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $149 −$83 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $127 −$19 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $96 +$67 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $64 −$20 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $85 +$50 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $85 +$63 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $64 −$21 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $43 +$41 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $32 +$22 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $43 +$58 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $108 −$39 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $32 +$37 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $43 −$22 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$5 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $42 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$10 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $38 −$35 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$11 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$7 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$6 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$5 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$7 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $17 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $53 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $49 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $32 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $32 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $32 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $77 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $31 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $31 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $30 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $32 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $32 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $129 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $33 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $34 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $32 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $32 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $22 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $65 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $135 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $148 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $22 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 118 history records