Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:07:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x6664…b643 other 294 markets active 0h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$48 (-1%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%29W / 264L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$5
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 26% −$5
other 26% −$39
sports 23% −$3
crypto 8% −$2
economics 7% −$1
world 5% −$2
culture 3% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -1.2% -10.6% 10% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 72 -0.7% -10.2% 7% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 160 -0.5% -10.0% 9% 0% -9.8%
all 293 -0.7% -10.1% 10% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -10.2%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses29 / 264
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)293 / 294
History coverage153d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 293 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 98¢ 98¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $47 $0 -0%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $8 $0 -0%
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $4 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $53 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $16 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $19 $0 -2%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $15 $0 -1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $13 $0 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $6 $0 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $19 −$1 -4%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 11 $2 $0 -1%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $64 $0 -0%
Will a player representing Netherlands be the top goalscorer at the 20 Jun 10 $8 $0 -1%
Will Portugal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $6 $0 -4%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 09 $4 $0 -2%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 09 $21 $0 -1%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $9 $0 -0%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 07 $11 $0 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 07 $2 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 07 $2 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $16 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $67 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $83 $0 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $8 $0 -2%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $16 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $109 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $23 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 04 $13 $0 -2%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $5 $0 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $88 $0 -0%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $4 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles Clippers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $136 $0 -0%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 02 $12 $0 -1%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $3 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $4 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $41 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $22 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $11 $0 -2%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $38 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $19 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 30 $52 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $113 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $3 26m
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $9 58m
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $9 9h
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $8 9h
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $8 16h
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $4 17h
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $4 23h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $2 23h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $2 29h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $6 30h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $6 34h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $6 35h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $6 40h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $3 40h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 94¢ $3 40h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $3 2d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 95¢ $3 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $2 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $1 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $1 2d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 97¢ $10 2d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 97¢ $10 3d
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 92¢ $6 3d
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $6 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $4 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $5 3d
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 96¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.18 · official $3.18 (match) · 1317 history records