Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:00:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x6664…1891 weather 189 markets active 0h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$159 (+0%) realized +$166 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate78%146W / 41L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$219per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$107
7 days+$183
14 days+$110
30 days+$544
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 67% −$178
other 19% +$100
sports 14% +$186
politics 0% +$4
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -7.1% -15.9% 87% 8% -8.3%
≤30d 108 -1.7% -11.1% 83% 15% -8.0%
≤90d 187 -5.5% -14.5% 78% 17% -9.3%
all 187 -5.5% -14.5% 78% 17% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 17% -9.3%
10% -22.7% 9% -18.0%
15% -30.1% 5% -25.9%
20% -37.0% 4% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$34 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$203
Realized+$166
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses146 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)187 / 189
History coverage63d
Avg bet$219
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? No 97¢ 95¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 20 $200 +$6 +3%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $750 +$10 +1%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $900 +$8 +1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $700 +$7 +1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $400 +$12 +3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $200 +$9 +5%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $51 +$26 +50%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $100 +$5 +5%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $50 +$4 +7%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $501 +$20 +4%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $600 +$6 +1%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $400 +$4 +1%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $300 +$5 +2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 −$85 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $200 +$6 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $900 +$7 +1%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $200 +$5 +2%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $801 +$18 +2%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $901 +$42 +5%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $511 +$33 +6%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $200 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,001 +$33 +3%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $902 +$21 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $200 +$6 +3%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $46 +$11 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? Jun 14 $136 −$134 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $301 +$12 +4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $130 +$8 +6%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $401 +$31 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $79 +$11 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 +$5 +5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $922 +$27 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on June 12? Jun 13 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? Jun 13 $250 +$7 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $700 +$22 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$4 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $60 +$7 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $101 +$17 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $702 +$27 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $60 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $801 +$13 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 10? Jun 11 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $791 +$12 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 9? Jun 10 $400 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $206 4m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? BUY No 97¢ $200 8m
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY No 97¢ $200 26m
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $761 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 99¢ $700 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 92¢ $50 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 100¢ $908 2h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 100¢ $500 2h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 98¢ $300 3h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 98¢ $100 3h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 100¢ $707 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $412 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 97¢ $400 4h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 99¢ $600 4h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $100 5h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $76 7h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 99¢ $200 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 8h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 19? BUY No 65¢ $51 11h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 31h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 100¢ $54 33h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $520 33h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 96¢ $501 34h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 93¢ $50 34h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $600 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 99¢ $400 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 14¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $206 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $203.10 · official $203.10 (match) · 608 history records