Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:19:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
66 0x6665…d1ef other 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 192d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,804 (+7%) realized +$1,846 · open −$42
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate45%19W / 23L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$408per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$600now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days+$93
14 days+$48
30 days+$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$1,475
politics 29% +$635
sports 7% −$271
crypto 3% −$141
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-42.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -51.6% -56.2% 33% 33% +10.7%
≤30d 9 -53.0% -57.5% 33% 33% +2.3%
≤90d 18 -44.1% -49.4% 39% 33% +2.1%
all 42 -35.9% -42.0% 45% 29% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.0% 29% -1.5%
10% -47.5% 24% -10.9%
15% -52.6% 24% -19.5%
20% -57.2% 10% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -28% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$138 vs −$39 · ×3.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.95 per $1 lost it wins $2.95
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$600
Realized+$1,846
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses19 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions20
Markets (closed)42 / 62
History coverage192d
Avg bet$408
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $185 $184 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 29¢ 29¢ $145 $145 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $57 $62 +$4 (+8%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $76 $40 −$36 (-47%)
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Yes $34 $33 −$1 (-4%)
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Yes $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Yes $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Yes $17 $16 −$2 (-10%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $17 $15 −$2 (-9%)
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Yes $13 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Yes $11 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Yes $11 $10 −$1 (-12%)
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Yes $4 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Yes $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will the Athletics win the 2026 World Series? Yes $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Yes $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 World Series? Yes $4 $3 −$1 (-21%)
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Yes $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $60 −$60 -99%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $352 +$159 +45%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $186 −$62 -34%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $82 +$18 +21%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 06 $58 −$46 -80%
Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $12 −$12 -97%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $391 +$157 +40%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 30 $60 −$38 -64%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 17 $689 −$380 -55%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score May 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1,543 +$593 +38%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 10 $2 −$2 -91%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 10 $6 −$2 -33%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 10 $10 +$6 +56%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 02 $10 −$9 -97%
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Apr 10 $1,952 +$14 +1%
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? Apr 07 $5,410 +$621 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Feb 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Feb 24 $25 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Feb 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Feb 17 $55 +$20 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Feb 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Feb 09 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Feb 09 $51 +$28 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Feb 09 $193 −$112 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Feb 09 $49 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 09 $98 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Feb 09 $45 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Feb 09 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 9AM ET Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 10AM ET Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Feb 09 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 9PM ET Feb 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Feb 09 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Feb 07 $4 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Feb 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Feb 06 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jan 23 $10 +$4 +43%
Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist P Jan 23 $12,473 +$948 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 11AM ET Dec 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Sam Altman be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 11 $597 +$35 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $10 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $50 1h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye $6 1h
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $3 4h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $5 38h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $5 38h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $5 38h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $4 38h
Will the Athletics win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $4 38h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $4 38h
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $4 38h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $11 38h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $11 38h
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $13 38h
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $18 38h
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $18 38h
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 29¢ $148 38h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $24 38h
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $35 38h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $190 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $18 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $29 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $29 2d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 100¢ $400 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 19¢ $36 8d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 56¢ $111 8d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 58¢ $352 8d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $115 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $600.01 · official $600.11 (match) · 385 history records