Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:21:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x6665…65d4 crypto 1347 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$3,724 (-1%) realized −$12,965 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate79%1127W / 293L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day243.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,210
7 days−$9,762
14 days−$12,965
30 days−$12,965
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$6,607
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 963 -9.0% -17.6% 81% 53% -19.7%
≤30d 1420 -7.6% -16.4% 79% 47% -14.1%
≤90d 1420 -7.6% -16.4% 79% 47% -14.1%
all 1420 -7.6% -16.4% 79% 47% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover243.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 47% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 5% -22.3%
15% -31.7% 3% -29.8%
20% -38.4% 2% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$120 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12,965
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses1127 / 293
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1420 / 1347
History coverage9d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day243.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1420 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $174 $0 −$174 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $510 $0 −$510 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $526 $0 −$526 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $420 $0 −$420 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 82¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $587 $0 −$587 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $605 $0 −$605 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $472 $0 −$472 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 89¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $605 −$605 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $340 −$340 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $500 −$500 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 31, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 2? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 31? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $605 −$605 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on May 31? Jun 14 $117 −$117 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 31, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 30? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 31, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $343 −$343 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 31, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $120 −$120 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 31, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $66 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $184 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $167 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $156 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $202 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $132 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $202 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $118 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $159 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $86 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $67 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $84 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $66 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $72 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $56 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $54 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $68 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $88 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records