Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:29:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
66 0x6666…ec5d sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$5 (+13%) realized +$3 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$6
other 47% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +18.9% +7.6% 62% 62% +3.3%
≤30d 8 +18.9% +7.6% 62% 62% +3.3%
≤90d 8 +18.9% +7.6% 62% 62% +3.3%
all 8 +18.9% +7.6% 62% 62% +3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.6% 62% +3.3%
10% -2.7% 50% -6.6%
15% -12.1% 38% -15.6%
20% -20.7% 25% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage4d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 70¢ $8 $11 +$2 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -22%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $4 −$3 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -42%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +73%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 +$1 +14%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +46%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 +$5 +152%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $9 45m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 55¢ $3 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 41¢ $4 20h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 21h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 23h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 47h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 40¢ $3 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $2 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $3 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 45¢ $3 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 45¢ $1 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 45¢ $1 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.57 · official $10.57 (match) · 22 history records