Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:14:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x666a…6065 politics 116 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,573 (+1%) realized +$1,573 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate17%20W / 96L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$1,266per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$21
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$75
other 40% +$1,885
sports 8% −$245
economics 3% −$3
world 1% −$4
tech 1% −$2
culture 1% −$1
finance 1% +$2
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 62 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 116 -3.2% -12.4% 17% 10% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 10% -8.6%
10% -20.8% 10% -17.3%
15% -28.4% 9% -25.3%
20% -35.4% 9% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,446) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$135 vs −$12 · ×11.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.36 per $1 lost it wins $2.36
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,573
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses20 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)116 / 116
History coverage131d
Avg bet$1,266
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 116 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 25 $1,328 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $376 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $355 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $476 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $3,977 −$4 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $559 +$1 +0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $6,042 −$6 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $1,524 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $814 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $770 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $858 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,370 −$2 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $624 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $747 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $757 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $3,419 −$4 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $640 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $1,255 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 04 $374 +$1 +0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $443 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 28 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $1,746 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $2,116 −$3 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $1,233 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,033 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,446 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $1,356 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $1,322 −$2 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 06 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 06 $1,338 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 05 $1,340 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $2,794 −$3 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $1,322 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $1,344 −$2 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 02 $930 +$2 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $5,396 −$6 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $3,857 −$4 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1,966 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $2,322 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $5,008 −$5 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $4,383 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,238 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,143 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $1,259 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,387 −$1 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 11 $2,555 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,358 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $2,612 −$3 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $670 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $3,854 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $571 1h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $572 4h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $375 5d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $376 5d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $355 5d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $355 5d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $475 6d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $476 6d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $285 7d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $285 7d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $802 9d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $803 9d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $763 11d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $764 11d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $813 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $814 12d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $769 12d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $770 12d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $857 12d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $858 12d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $859 13d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $860 13d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $623 17d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $624 18d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $755 18d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $756 18d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $746 19d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $747 19d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $756 20d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $757 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 389 history records