Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:47:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
66 0x666c…e491 politics 127 markets active 2d ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$75 (+0%) realized +$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate13%16W / 110L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$304per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$17
politics 40% −$19
sports 5% +$109
tech 2% −$1
economics 2% −$1
crypto 2% $0
world 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 116 +3.5% -6.3% 9% 7% -9.4%
all 126 +3.3% -6.6% 13% 10% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 10% -9.4%
10% -15.5% 9% -18.0%
15% -23.7% 6% -26.0%
20% -31.2% 5% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×11.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses16 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)126 / 127
History coverage110d
Avg bet$304
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $435 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $357 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $320 $0 -0%
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli Jun 08 $53 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $332 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $43 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $60 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $354 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $359 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $324 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 20 $251 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $304 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $308 −$1 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 17 $254 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $675 −$1 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $341 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $272 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $350 −$1 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 13 $272 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $871 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $625 −$1 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 10 $372 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $297 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $251 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $1,012 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $275 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $262 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $663 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $346 −$1 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 05 $295 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $296 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 04 $322 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $285 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $670 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $368 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $661 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $317 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $322 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 29 $355 +$1 +0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $613 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $265 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $320 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 21 $367 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $647 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $376 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $265 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $367 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $340 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $352 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $370 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 36h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 36h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 47h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 2d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 5d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 6d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli SELL No 100¢ $53 8d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli BUY No 100¢ $53 8d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 8d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 8d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 9d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 16d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $60 17d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $60 17d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $353 22d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $354 22d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $359 24d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $359 24d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $324 25d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $324 26d
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $251 26d
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $251 27d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $304 27d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $304 28d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $308 29d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $308 29d
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $254 29d
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $254 30d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.97 · official $54.97 (match) · 361 history records