Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:38:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

66
0x666c…e2ad
crypto · 30 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$35 -45%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$38 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses9 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage257d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 1 History 29 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 80¢ 80¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2025-11-18? Yes 84¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-02? Yes 68¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the fight be won by submission? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Barcelona vs. Paris Saint Germain end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Ludogorets win on 2025-10-02? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Feb 18 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Feb 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Feb 18 $2 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Feb 14 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Feb 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Spain win on 2025-11-18? Nov 18 $9 −$9 -100%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $7 +$2 +35%
Will the fight be won by submission? Nov 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-02? Oct 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ludogorets win on 2025-10-02? Oct 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-01? Oct 01 $3 −$1 -40%
Will Barcelona vs. Paris Saint Germain end in a draw? Oct 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by October 3? Oct 01 $3 −$2 -55%
Will Juventus win on 2025-10-01? Oct 01 $1 −$1 -63%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-30? Oct 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2025-09-30? Oct 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur win on 2025-09-30? Oct 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-30? Sep 30 $1 $0 +49%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-30? Sep 30 $3 +$2 +69%
Will Atletico Madrid vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw? Sep 30 $2 −$1 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 46% −$24
crypto 26% −$8
sports 24% −$5
world 4% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $4 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 116d
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 116d
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $2 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $1 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 119d
Will Spain win on 2025-11-18? BUY Yes 84¢ $9 208d
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Makhachev 74¢ $7 212d
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 212d
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-02? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 255d
Will Ludogorets win on 2025-10-02? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 255d
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-01? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 255d
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-01? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 255d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-50.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -25.1% -32.2% 44% 44% -33.4%
≤30d 9 -25.1% -32.2% 44% 44% -33.4%
≤90d 9 -25.1% -32.2% 44% 44% -33.4%
all 29 -45.3% -50.5% 31% 31% -56.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.5% 31% -56.4%
10% -55.2% 24% -60.6%
15% -59.6% 17% -64.4%
20% -63.5% 10% -67.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.98 · official $3.98 (match) · 61 history records