Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:37:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

66
0x666d…3de3
crypto · 22 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$3 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$15 · open −$10
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses8 / 12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)20 / 22
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day41.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 20 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Up 55¢ 58¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$7 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $6 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $4 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $16 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $36 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -21.8% -29.3% 40% 40% -19.0%
≤30d 20 -21.8% -29.3% 40% 40% -19.0%
≤90d 20 -21.8% -29.3% 40% 40% -19.0%
all 20 -21.8% -29.3% 40% 40% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover41.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.3% 40% -19.0%
10% ← realistic here -36.0% 35% -26.7%
15% -42.2% 30% -33.8%
20% -47.9% 25% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.43 · official $4.88 (match) · 45 history records