Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:22:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

66
0x666f…a240
sports · 4 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
−$1 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$100
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 2 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Houston Astros 52¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Seattle Mariners 58¢ 57¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 43¢ 42¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $35 +$22 +62%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $72 −$22 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 58¢ $32 2h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 52¢ $51 3h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 43¢ $20 4h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ $35 22h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 52¢ $48 23h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 48¢ $24 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +15.9% +4.9% 50% 50% -9.4%
≤30d 2 +15.9% +4.9% 50% 50% -9.4%
≤90d 2 +15.9% +4.9% 50% 50% -9.4%
all 2 +15.9% +4.9% 50% 50% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.9% 50% -9.4%
10% -5.2% 50% -18.1%
15% -14.3% 50% -26.0%
20% -22.7% 50% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.41 · official $100.41 (match) · 8 history records