Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:21:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
66 0x6676…cddc crypto 446 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$4,391 (-49%) realized +$110 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate93%417W / 29L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$15
sports 43% +$144
other 5% −$11
weather 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -17.9% -25.7% 48% 41% -23.4%
≤30d 27 -17.9% -25.7% 48% 41% -23.4%
≤90d 446 -1.5% -10.9% 93% 8% -8.4%
all 446 -1.5% -10.9% 93% 8% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 8% -8.4%
10% -19.4% 5% -17.2%
15% -27.2% 3% -25.2%
20% -34.4% 2% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$110
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses417 / 29
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)446 / 446
History coverage71d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 446 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Arizona Diamondbacks 41¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 41¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5) New York Mets 63¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Cincinnati Reds 58¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 53¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Knicks 50¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $2 $0 +22%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $1 −$1 -82%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $3 −$1 -26%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $1 −$1 -56%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $2 $0 +23%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $1 $0 -12%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $2 −$1 -30%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $1 $0 +30%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $1 $0 +42%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $1 $0 +17%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -81%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -76%
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 $0 -0%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 10 $1 +$1 +70%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $1 +$1 +114%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $1 $0 +27%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Marozsan vs Kopriva May 06 $7 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 03 $50 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: AaB Esport vs TNC (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Serie May 03 $50 $0 +0%
Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx May 03 $50 $0 +0%
NEC vs. Telstar 1963: Both Teams to Score May 03 $50 $0 +0%
Deportivo Alavés vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to Score May 02 $50 $0 +0%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 1.5 May 02 $50 $0 +0%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 30 $10 −$10 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Apr 30 $10 +$3 +32%
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Apr 28 $1,282 +$15 +1%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 28 $10 +$3 +34%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros Apr 27 $10 $0 +2%
Athletics vs. Texas Rangers Apr 27 $10 $0 +2%
Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays Apr 27 $10 $0 +2%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals Apr 27 $10 $0 +4%
Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets Apr 27 $10 +$1 +7%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers Apr 27 $10 +$1 +8%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Apr 27 $10 +$2 +16%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Texas Rangers Apr 24 $10 +$2 +20%
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets Apr 24 $10 $0 +3%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 24 $10 +$3 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Athletics $0 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 89¢ $1 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins SELL St. Louis Cardinals 26¢ $0 2h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 43¢ $1 2h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 57¢ $1 2h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL New York Yankees 59¢ $1 2h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels 47¢ $1 2h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 66¢ $1 2h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 47¢ $1 2h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 49¢ $1 2h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 38¢ $1 2h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL New York Yankees 60¢ $1 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 77¢ $1 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL Baltimore Orioles 11¢ $0 2h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 49¢ $1 3h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Cincinnati Reds 34¢ $1 3h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 50¢ $1 3h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 57¢ $1 3h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL San Diego Padres 43¢ $1 3h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 47¢ $1 3h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 57¢ $1 3h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 52¢ $1 17h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Philadelphia Phillies 80¢ $1 19h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Kansas City Royals 58¢ $1 20h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 60¢ $1 20h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 48¢ $1 20h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Kansas City Royals 56¢ $1 21h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 57¢ $1 21h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 41¢ $1 24h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 77¢ $1 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records