trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -0.6% | -10.0% | 20% | 0% | -10.1% |
| ≤30d | 14 | +1.1% | -8.5% | 36% | 0% | -8.8% |
| ≤90d | 14 | +1.1% | -8.5% | 36% | 0% | -8.8% |
| all | 28 | +2.4% | -7.3% | 54% | 4% | -8.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.3% | 4% | -8.6% |
| 10% | -16.2% | 4% | -17.4% |
| 15% | -24.3% | 0% | -25.4% |
| 20% | -31.7% | 0% | -32.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | No | 74¢ | 74¢ | $7 | $7 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Jun 20 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 19 | $38 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 19 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | Jun 18 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | Jun 17 | $38 | $0 | -1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | May 26 | $36 | +$3 | +8% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 25 | $32 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 25 | $32 | $0 | -0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | May 25 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 24 | $32 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 24 | $14 | $0 | +3% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 24 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | May 24 | $19 | +$2 | +8% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 23 | $31 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? | Dec 13 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | Jun 27 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? | Jun 25 | $8 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? | Jun 07 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | Jun 06 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? | Jun 06 | $7 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Jun 05 | $1 | $0 | +35% |
| Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? | Jun 05 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? | Jun 05 | $7 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? | Jun 04 | $7 | $0 | -0% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? | Jun 03 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? | Jun 03 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Jun 01 | $14 | +$1 | +8% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be 56°F or below on March 11? | Mar 11 | $14 | $0 | +1% |