Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:27:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

66
0x6677…425c
world · 52 markets active 5h ago
2.0score
+$40 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$40 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses20 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage317d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 0 History 52 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$4
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $104 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $42 −$5 -13%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $96 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $2 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $187 +$2 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $312 +$5 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $159 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $216 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $70 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $92 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $92 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 02 $91 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $261 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $169 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $115 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $39 −$1 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $6 −$1 -15%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $218 $0 -0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 18 $15 +$6 +40%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 15 $89 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $87 $0 -0%
Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5) Mar 15 $39 +$30 +76%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 15 $2 $0 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 13 $214 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 12 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 12 $193 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? Aug 16 $43 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 02 $4 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Aug 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 02 $52 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 02 $57 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 01 $51 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 01 $55 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 01 $61 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 01 $1 $0 +33%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 31 $6 $0 -2%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 30 $6 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? Jul 30 $61 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 56% +$6
other 26% +$4
finance 7% $0
sports 4% +$30
politics 4% −$1
economics 2% $0
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $2 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 5h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $27 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $69 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $96 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 98¢ $102 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 97¢ $101 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 34¢ $36 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 39¢ $42 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $94 4d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $3 4d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $96 4d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $52 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $52 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $51 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $14 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $16 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $49 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $30 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $64 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $94 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.6% -10.0% 64% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 24 +0.7% -8.9% 46% 4% -9.3%
≤90d 26 +3.2% -6.6% 46% 8% -8.3%
all 52 +2.2% -7.6% 38% 8% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 8% -8.5%
10% -16.4% 6% -17.3%
15% -24.5% 4% -25.3%
20% -31.9% 2% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 222 history records