Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:01:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x667f…e765 other 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$448 (-12%) realized −$482 · open +$34
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate19%4W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$2,407now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$308
14 days−$318
30 days−$517
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$187
sports 11% −$227
world 3% −$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-61.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -34.2% -40.5% 33% 17% -32.8%
≤30d 21 -57.9% -61.9% 19% 10% -42.0%
≤90d 21 -57.9% -61.9% 19% 10% -42.0%
all 21 -57.9% -61.9% 19% 10% -42.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -61.9% 10% -42.0%
10% -65.6% 10% -47.6%
15% -68.9% 10% -52.6%
20% -71.9% 5% -57.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -58% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -76% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$34 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$2,407
Realized−$482
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses4 / 17
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions9
Markets (closed)21 / 30
History coverage23d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $396 $540 +$145 (+37%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $400 $458 +$58 (+15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $298 $352 +$53 (+18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $400 $331 −$69 (-17%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $391 $306 −$85 (-22%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $299 $206 −$93 (-31%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 74¢ 74¢ $104 $103 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 58¢ $55 $56 +$1 (+3%)
Will Dalian Yingbo win Chinese Super League? No 50¢ 90¢ $30 $54 +$24 (+80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $192 −$2 -1%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$69 -68%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $180 −$179 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $102 +$2 +2%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $309 +$13 +4%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $144 −$23 -16%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$21 -68%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$21 +42%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Kyrgyz Republic vs. Kenya end in a draw? May 31 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Kenya win on 2026-06-03? May 31 $14 −$13 -98%
Will Kyrgyz Republic win on 2026-06-03? May 31 $14 −$13 -98%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $20 −$10 -48%
Will Japan vs. Iceland end in a draw? May 31 $30 −$28 -93%
Will Japan win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $50 −$33 -64%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $56 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 74¢ $104 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $190 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $192 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 18¢ $33 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 3d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 80¢ $101 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 58¢ $104 4d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 79¢ $50 4d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 79¢ $29 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $102 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 4d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $10 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $322 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 4d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $121 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $10 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 91¢ $72 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $204 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $200 8d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $402 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $406 8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,407.27 · official $2,407.27 (match) · 81 history records