Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:44:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x6684…30df crypto 30 markets active 6d ago coverage 594d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$147 (+15%) realized +$147 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate69%20W / 9L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 70% −$3
crypto 21% +$181
other 4% $0
sports 4% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.4% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 4 -0.4% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 4 -0.4% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.9%
all 29 +0.0% -9.5% 69% 3% +4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 3% +4.6%
10% -18.2% 3% -5.5%
15% -26.1% 3% -14.6%
20% -33.3% 3% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$4 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.26 per $1 lost it wins $5.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

594d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$147
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses20 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage594d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $6 $0 -1%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $4 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $6 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Mavericks Feb 06 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 4AM ET Dec 04 $181 +$181 +100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on May 23? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $98000 on May 16? May 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $93000 on May 9? May 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? May 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Apr 25? Apr 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1400 and $1500 on Apr 25? Apr 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? Apr 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1300 and $1400 on Apr 18? Apr 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $90000 on April 4? Apr 11 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $1,900 on April 11? Apr 11 $1 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88000 on Apr 11? Apr 11 $1 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $190 in March? Apr 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $3,500.00 again by March 31? Apr 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? Apr 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $77000 on Mar 21? Mar 23 $1 $0 +0%
Solana above $145 on March 14? Mar 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the Western Conference? Mar 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Bengals win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 08 $41 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 01 $326 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 29 $321 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $13 6d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 82¢ $2 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $4 6d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $6 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $4 76d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 83¢ $4 78d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 83¢ $6 78d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $6 87d
Spurs vs. Mavericks BUY Mavericks 29¢ $32 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 4AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $73 196d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 4AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $108 196d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $1 390d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $98000 on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $1 397d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $93000 on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $1 404d
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $1 414d
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? BUY No 100¢ $1 414d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1400 and $1500 on Apr 25? BUY No 100¢ $1 418d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Apr 25? BUY No 100¢ $1 418d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1300 and $1400 on Apr 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 425d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 425d
Ethereum above $1,900 on April 11? SELL No 100¢ $1 432d
Ethereum above $1,900 on April 11? BUY No 100¢ $1 432d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88000 on Apr 11? SELL No 99¢ $1 432d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88000 on Apr 11? BUY No 100¢ $1 432d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $90000 on April 4? BUY No 100¢ $1 439d
Will Solana hit $190 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1 446d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $1 446d
Will Ethereum hit $3,500.00 again by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $1 446d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.96 · official $12.96 (match) · 144 history records