Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:31:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
66 0x6686…7fcd sports 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 616d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,768 (+58%) realized +$1,770 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate57%25W / 19L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$135
14 days+$135
30 days−$298
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$1,781
other 6% +$3
crypto 3% −$16
world 2% −$24
finance 0% +$10
politics 0% +$5
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +39.9% +26.6% 58% 58% +15.2%
≤30d 26 +16.4% +5.3% 54% 50% -32.6%
≤90d 30 +13.7% +2.8% 53% 50% -31.2%
all 44 +17.6% +6.4% 57% 50% +46.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.4% 50% +46.3%
10% -3.8% 48% +32.3%
15% -13.1% 41% +19.5%
20% -21.6% 36% +7.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$31 · ×3.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.02 per $1 lost it wins $4.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

616d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized+$1,770
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses25 / 19
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions3
Markets (closed)44 / 48
History coverage616d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $14 $12 −$1 (-9%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 −$3 -5%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $28 +$22 +79%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $25 +$25 +101%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $36 +$10 +27%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $12 +$26 +208%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $65 +$35 +55%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $36 −$1 -2%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $92 +$58 +64%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $29 −$1 -2%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $57 −$24 -42%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 +$24 +96%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $26 +$18 +71%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $38 +$7 +19%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $32 +$2 +8%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $38 +$12 +32%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $38 +$12 +31%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $6 −$6 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $67 +$10 +15%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $240 −$240 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $201 −$201 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 30 $8 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 30 $10 −$7 -69%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 28 $1 +$2 +233%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 1? Apr 01 $5 −$5 -93%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? Apr 01 $10 +$10 +108%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of February? Apr 01 $11 +$9 +75%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jan 24 $253 +$412 +163%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jan 24 $370 +$630 +170%
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jan 24 $18 +$7 +39%
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Jan 24 $720 +$279 +39%
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Jan 24 $270 +$729 +270%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 17? Jan 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on January 16? Jan 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Jan 04 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Top Esports (BO3) Jan 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 04 $10 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 30 $1 $0 +6%
Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? Oct 23 $5 +$5 +96%
Will a Democrat win the popular vote and the Presidency? Nov 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $3 +$2 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 46¢ $48 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 33¢ $51 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $28 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $46 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $36 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $25 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $38 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $20 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $18 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $65 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 35¢ $35 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 35¢ $36 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $92 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $28 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $29 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $33 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $57 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $13 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $26 6d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 89¢ $44 14d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 89¢ $44 14d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 52¢ $26 14d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 70¢ $35 14d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 65¢ $32 14d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 75¢ $38 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.05 · official $124.05 · 113 history records