Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:03:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
66 0x6689…593a other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$22 (+3%) realized +$20 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%9W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$143
14 days+$17
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$198
crypto 18% −$100
sports 14% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +67.0% +51.1% 100% 100% +44.0%
≤30d 17 -8.0% -16.7% 53% 53% -6.9%
≤90d 17 -8.0% -16.7% 53% 53% -6.9%
all 17 -8.0% -16.7% 53% 53% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 53% -6.9%
10% -24.7% 47% -15.8%
15% -32.0% 47% -24.0%
20% -38.6% 24% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$25 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$132
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses9 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)17 / 20
History coverage12d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 +$36 +70%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$50 +50%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$25 +124%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$11 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 20 $10 +$14 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$5 -34%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany to score first vs. Paraguay? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-2 BUY 49¢ $20 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 33h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 2d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 8d
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 9d
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 9d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 32¢ $10 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 9d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 12d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 12d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $10 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.69 · official $151.38 · 33 history records