Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:23:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x668d…97d2 other 256 markets active 3d ago coverage 215d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 214d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$38,774 (+7%) realized +$36,521 · open +$2,253
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate31%152W / 337L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$2,106per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$46,395now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 215d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$2,305
other 38% −$2,728
world 7% −$206
culture 3% +$27,880
tech 3% −$507
economics 2% +$244
sports 0% +$548
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 271 -36.2% -42.3% 9% 8% -64.1%
≤30d 279 -35.0% -41.2% 11% 9% -64.9%
≤90d 317 -32.8% -39.2% 16% 11% -22.6%
all 485 -19.6% -27.2% 31% 14% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.2% 14% -6.4%
10% ← realistic here -34.2% 12% -15.4%
15% -40.6% 10% -23.6%
20% -46.4% 9% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$272 vs −$95 · ×2.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

215d coverage
Net worth$46,395
Realized+$36,521
Unrealized+$2,253
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses152 / 337
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Open positions98
Markets (closed)489 / 256
History coverage215d ⚠
Avg bet$2,106
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 98 History 489 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 94¢ 97¢ $11,024 $11,295 +$270 (+2%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 81¢ $4,450 $7,182 +$2,732 (+61%)
Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 100¢ $2,844 $2,961 +$116 (+4%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 92¢ 86¢ $3,117 $2,935 −$181 (-6%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 86¢ 94¢ $2,309 $2,545 +$236 (+10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 23¢ $171 $2,356 +$2,185 (+1277%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 21¢ $243 $2,207 +$1,964 (+808%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 19¢ $4,500 $1,737 −$2,763 (-61%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 10¢ $297 $1,173 +$875 (+294%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 11¢ $172 $1,153 +$981 (+569%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No 84¢ 94¢ $1,014 $1,134 +$120 (+12%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $910 $925 +$15 (+2%)
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 3¢ 94¢ $22 $789 +$767 (+3519%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $744 $767 +$23 (+3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $172 $626 +$453 (+263%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $883 $616 −$268 (-30%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $172 $533 +$360 (+209%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 63¢ 100¢ $315 $500 +$185 (+59%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 87¢ 100¢ $437 $499 +$62 (+14%)
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $455 $477 +$22 (+5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $172 $403 +$231 (+134%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $557 $324 −$233 (-42%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $91 $315 +$224 (+245%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 90¢ 93¢ $300 $311 +$11 (+4%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $172 $274 +$102 (+59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 343 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Szymon Gumularz win the 2025 FIDE Grand Swiss chess tournament? Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by August 31? Jun 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Andy Byron be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Raul Perestrello win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alireza Firouzja win the Sinquefield Cup 2025 chess tournament? Jun 28 $9 +$37 +421%
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $172 −$172 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Taylor Swift be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MrBeast say Million / Billion 15+ times during next video? Jun 28 $548 −$1,658 -302%
Will MrBeast raise 40m on Sunday August 31? Jun 28 $30 −$7 -23%
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Maria Steen win the Irish Presidential Election? Jun 28 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $172 −$172 -100%
Will Daniil Dubov win the 2025 FIDE World Cup? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov win the 2025 FIDE World Cup? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jack Osbourne win series 25 of "I'm a Celebrity... Get Me Out of Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will U.S. summer tourism decline in 2025? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Manuela Magno win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Timothée Chalamet and Kylie Jenner engaged in 2025? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electi Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nodirbek Yakubboev win the 2025 FIDE World Cup? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Farmer–Citizen Movement win the second most seats in the 2025 Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2025 FIDE Grand Swiss chess tournament? Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Hans Moke Niemann win the 2025 FIDE World Cup? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Shedeur Sanders be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Vladimir Fedoseev win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Forum for Democracy win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands pa Jun 28 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Micheal Martin win the Irish Presidential Election? Jun 28 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Vladimir Putin be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Yubin Jang win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026? Jun 28 $89 −$89 -100%
Will Samuel Sevian win the Sinquefield Cup 2025 chess tournament? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $172 −$172 -100%
Will New Social Contract win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands pa Jun 28 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $172 −$172 -100%
Will the Christian Union win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherl Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Barry Andrews win the Irish Presidential Election? Jun 28 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Joana Amaral Dias win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the 2025 FIDE World Cup? Jun 28 $1 +$72 +11885%
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 FIDE Grand Swiss chess tournament? Jun 28 $19 −$7 -40%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the #1 searched person on Google this year Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Vincent Keymer win the 2025 FIDE World Cup? Jun 28 $2 +$3 +118%
Will Other be the second most valuable company on October 31? Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Vladislav Artemiev win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Nihal Sarin win the 2025 Quantbox Chennai Grand Masters? Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Jun 28 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Pedro Passos Coelho win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novemb Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $980 3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $300 9d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46,395.35 · official $46,395.36 (match) · 3500 history records