Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:12:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
66 0x668f…9ae2 other 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized +$31 · open −$48
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate62%32W / 20L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$277now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$114
14 days+$101
30 days+$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$7
sports 22% +$119
politics 6% +$1
culture 5% +$12
crypto 0% −$1
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+34.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +83.7% +66.2% 58% 58% +93.2%
≤30d 24 +97.1% +78.3% 58% 54% +14.4%
≤90d 26 +86.3% +68.6% 58% 54% +11.3%
all 52 +48.3% +34.2% 62% 50% +10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +34.2% 50% +10.6%
10% +21.3% 44% -0.0%
15% +9.6% 33% -9.7%
20% -1.1% 31% -18.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +86% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$277
Realized+$31
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses32 / 20
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions6
Markets (closed)52 / 67
History coverage164d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 85¢ 82¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $27 −$23 (-46%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 38¢ 38¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Senegal (-3.5) AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 AND Will Saudi A Jun 26 $10 +$4 +43%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 7.5 Total Corners AND Will Bosnia and Herzego Jun 25 $19 +$21 +106%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Jun 25 $4 +$29 +762%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 +$8 +79%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$15 +152%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND W Jun 23 $25 +$42 +164%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $5 +$10 +197%
Igor Thiago: 1+ goals Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AN Jun 19 $1 +$5 +450%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$8 +28%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Wil Jun 17 $10 +$40 +395%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 AND Côt Jun 15 $5 +$43 +838%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$9 +60%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $10 +$1 +15%
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $15 +$2 +16%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $20 +$15 +75%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $55 +$12 +22%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-01-29? Jan 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Hyperliquid hit $30 in January? Jan 29 $12 +$30 +253%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $7 −$5 -71%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jan 25 $100 +$11 +10%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-01-22? Jan 22 $5 +$7 +132%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-01-22? Jan 22 $5 +$10 +203%
Solana Up or Down - January 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jan 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-21? Jan 22 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jan 21 $1 $0 +3%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-01-21? Jan 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 19? Jan 19 $2 −$1 -50%
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal pre Jan 18 $20 +$1 +3%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jan 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025? Jan 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Jan 18 $10 +$1 +7%
Bills vs. Broncos Jan 18 $5 +$1 +23%
Will António Filipe win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portuga Jan 16 $20 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-16? Jan 16 $10 +$3 +31%
Will AS Monaco FC vs. FC Lorient end in a draw? Jan 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-01-14? Jan 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 2h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $5 2h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 AND Will Saud BUY 16¢ $10 2h
Spread: Senegal (-3.5) AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 AND Will Saudi A SELL 31¢ $14 2h
Spread: Senegal (-3.5) AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 AND Will Saudi A BUY 21¢ $10 2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $10 27h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 47h
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals BUY Yes 11¢ $4 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 7.5 Total Corners AND Will Bosnia and Herzego BUY 48¢ $19 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corn BUY 35¢ $8 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Colombi BUY 19¢ $10 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND W BUY 37¢ $25 4d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $5 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $2 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? AND BUY 38¢ $2 6d
Igor Thiago: 1+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $1 6d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $10 7d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AN BUY 18¢ $1 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $39 8d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Mexico vs. Ko BUY $2 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $28 8d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 8d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 8d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 49¢ $10 9d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 9d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $277.07 · official $287.01 · 136 history records