Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:38:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x669d…874a crypto 302 markets active 1h ago coverage 222d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$287 (-1%) realized −$287 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate62%187W / 115L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$627
7 days−$627
14 days−$627
30 days−$733
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$952
sports 10% +$549
other 10% +$168
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -27.7% -34.6% 45% 43% -23.6%
≤30d 94 -21.7% -29.1% 48% 41% -21.5%
≤90d 160 -16.8% -24.7% 46% 36% -34.8%
all 302 -2.5% -11.8% 62% 42% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 42% -10.0%
10% -20.2% 30% -18.6%
15% -27.9% 19% -26.5%
20% -35.0% 11% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$74 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$287
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses187 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)302 / 302
History coverage222d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 302 Trades
no open positions (45 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$69 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $69 +$50 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$19 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 18 $35 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $40 −$38 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $40 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $70 +$30 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $39 −$37 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $37 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $90 −$89 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $87 +$63 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$9 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $42 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $23 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 18 $32 −$31 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $24 −$14 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 18 $38 +$12 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$14 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 18 $91 +$29 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $107 −$105 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $57 −$10 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $103 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 18 $117 +$23 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $124 +$76 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 18 $38 −$36 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $85 −$83 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 18 $135 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 18 $91 +$19 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $64 +$106 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $95 +$55 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $126 +$14 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $88 −$85 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $47 −$46 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $34 −$32 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$14 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $4 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $4 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $4 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $8 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $0 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $19 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1926 history records