trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | +3.4% | -6.5% | 43% | 14% | -7.6% |
| ≤30d | 7 | +3.4% | -6.5% | 43% | 14% | -7.6% |
| ≤90d | 7 | +3.4% | -6.5% | 43% | 14% | -7.6% |
| all | 23 | -6.6% | -15.5% | 39% | 4% | -11.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -15.5% | 4% | -11.3% |
| 10% | -23.6% | 0% | -19.8% |
| 15% | -31.0% | 0% | -27.6% |
| 20% | -37.8% | 0% | -34.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 11¢ | 20¢ | $0 | $1 | +$0 (+80%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 15 | $99 | +$2 | +2% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 14 | $20 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 13 | $2 | $0 | +16% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 13 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Jun 11 | $29 | +$2 | +9% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 10 | $42 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 10 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? | Dec 10 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? | Jun 24 | $5 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer in the EPL? | May 26 | $8 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? | May 07 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? | Apr 25 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? | Apr 24 | $5 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Apr 23 | $2 | −$1 | -46% |
| Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? | Apr 17 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on March 3? | Mar 04 | $11 | −$2 | -22% |
| Will Ryan Reynolds attend the Oscars? | Mar 04 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Prairie View A&M vs. Jackson State | Mar 03 | $6 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Fernanda Torres win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars? | Mar 03 | $18 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on March 3? | Mar 03 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 57°F or higher on March 4? | Mar 03 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will "Sugarcane" win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 2025 Oscars? | Mar 03 | $3 | $0 | -13% |