Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:51:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
66 0x66a9…4ccf other 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 594d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$51 (+0%) realized +$51 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate21%14W / 53L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$295per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 69% −$14
politics 15% −$10
other 11% +$5
world 1% $0
sports 1% +$68
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 54 +2.3% -7.4% 20% 15% -7.9%
all 67 +1.7% -8.0% 21% 12% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 12% -9.3%
10% -16.8% 12% -18.0%
15% -24.9% 12% -25.9%
20% -32.2% 12% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×5.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

594d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses14 / 53
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)67 / 69
History coverage594d
Avg bet$295
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $88 $88 −$0 (-0%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 19 $32 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $22 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $19 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $24 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $27 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $24 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $21 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $22 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 02 $87 $0 +0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $154 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $28 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 24 $20 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $56 $0 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 18 $135 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $144 $0 -0%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $15 +$8 +52%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $134 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $129 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 06 $138 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $275 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $129 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $140 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $132 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $140 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $136 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $131 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 23 $140 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 22 $128 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $131 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $141 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $134 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $128 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $142 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $134 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 14 $131 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Apr 13 $131 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $13 +$11 +86%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Hurricanes Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Blues vs. Ducks Apr 06 $11 +$14 +127%
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car Apr 02 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Apr 02 $22 $0 +0%
Suns vs. Magic Apr 02 $22 +$17 +77%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 02 $45 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $39 1h
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $32 1h
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $32 3h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $22 27h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $22 28h
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 46h
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 2d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 2d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 3d
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? BUY No 100¢ $88 4d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $24 8d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $24 8d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 9d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 10d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 13d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 14d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $24 15d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 15d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $21 15d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $21 16d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $22 16d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $22 16d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 19d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 19d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $28 19d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 20d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 25d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 25d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $56 26d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.50 · official $126.50 (match) · 269 history records