Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:28:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x66aa…5bb7 crypto 1739 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$954 (-17%) realized −$1,020 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate49%937W / 986L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day72.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$854
7 days−$829
14 days−$820
30 days−$895
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$128
world 0% −$1
other 0% −$1
politics 0% −$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 442 -73.5% -76.0% 22% 10% -49.0%
≤30d 1459 -22.5% -29.9% 47% 40% -28.3%
≤90d 1923 -19.4% -27.0% 49% 41% -25.0%
all 1923 -19.4% -27.0% 49% 41% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.0% 41% -25.0%
10% ← realistic here -34.0% 33% -32.2%
15% -40.4% 26% -38.8%
20% -46.2% 19% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,020
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses937 / 986
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1923 / 1739
History coverage39d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day72.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1923 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Down 92¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 87¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $7 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records