Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:55:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
66 0x66ab…1fd2 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 429d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$84 (-15%) realized −$75 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$267now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$32
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$104
sports 18% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-60.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -19.0% -26.7% 50% 50% -8.4%
≤30d 4 -23.6% -30.9% 50% 50% -10.9%
≤90d 4 -23.6% -30.9% 50% 50% -10.9%
all 7 -56.4% -60.5% 29% 29% -36.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -60.5% 29% -36.4%
10% -64.3% 29% -42.5%
15% -67.7% 29% -48.0%
20% -70.9% 14% -53.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$31 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

429d coverage
Net worth$267
Realized−$75
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage429d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $277 $267 −$9 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $41 −$40 -99%
Mexico to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 25 $67 +$42 +62%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $33 −$33 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $65 +$28 +43%
Will Haiti win on 2026-03-27? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-03-28? Mar 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? May 06 $76 −$76 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 45¢ $281 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $41 4d
Mexico to score first vs. Czechia? BUY Yes 61¢ $67 5d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $33 11d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $94 18d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $65 18d
Will Haiti win on 2026-03-27? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 93d
Will Mexico win on 2026-03-28? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 93d
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? BUY Yes 1¢ $37 419d
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? BUY Yes 1¢ $19 423d
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 429d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $267.33 · official $267.33 (match) · 12 history records