Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:18:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
66 0x66ac…5e75 sports 513 markets active 3h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,718 (+7%) realized +$1,718 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate57%293W / 219L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$255est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$237now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days+$199
14 days+$673
30 days+$1,761
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$1,535
other 2% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 113 +5.6% -4.5% 53% 46% -6.4%
≤30d 442 +13.3% +2.6% 60% 53% -1.9%
≤90d 512 +8.3% -2.0% 57% 52% -3.5%
all 512 +8.3% -2.0% 57% 52% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 52% -3.5%
10% -11.4% 42% -12.7%
15% -19.9% 33% -21.1%
20% -27.8% 25% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$31 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$237
Realized+$1,718
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses293 / 219
Est. fees paid−$255
Open positions1
Markets (closed)512 / 513
History coverage37d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 512 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Team Falcons 66¢ 66¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 169 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Blinkova vs. Putintseva: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 20 $51 −$1 -2%
Anna Blinkova vs. Yulia Putintseva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 −$1 -2%
ITF Taipei: Haruka Kaji vs Yuno Kitahara Jun 20 $50 +$5 +11%
ITF Irvine: Bryce Nakashima vs Ronit Karki Jun 20 $49 +$34 +70%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $102 +$98 +97%
ITF Tulsa: Gavin Young vs Maximus Dussault Jun 19 $50 +$4 +8%
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) Jun 19 $51 +$45 +90%
ITF Tokyo: Hyeon Chung vs Masamichi Imamura Jun 19 $51 −$3 -5%
ITF Milano: Georgii Kravchenko vs Giuseppe La Vela Jun 19 $50 +$16 +32%
Halle Open (Doubles): Galloway/Peers vs Arribage/Olivetti Jun 19 $51 −$9 -18%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) Jun 19 $102 −$14 -14%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Bartunkova (+1.5) Jun 19 $50 −$50 -99%
Set Handicap: Frodin (-1.5) vs Wobker (+1.5) Jun 19 $50 −$50 -99%
ITF Klosters: Dylan Dietrich vs Adrien Burdet Jun 19 $50 +$14 +28%
ITF Samobor: Nikita Mashtakov vs Nicolas Jadoun Jun 19 $50 +$6 +12%
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Hunter Heck Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Irvine: Kenta Miyoshi vs Benjamin O'connell Jun 19 $50 +$5 +11%
ITF Taipei: Yuno Kitahara vs Thasaporn Naklo Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
ITF Irvine: Patsy Daughters vs Alina Shcherbinina Jun 18 $50 +$4 +7%
ITF Tulsa: Ilyas Milad Fahim vs Jeffrey John Wolf Jun 18 $50 +$6 +12%
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Matias Soto Jun 18 $51 +$26 +52%
ITF Tulsa: Maximus Dussault vs Ozan Baris Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Yushan Shao Jun 18 $9 −$9 -97%
ITF Bolszewo: Maja Pawelska vs Weronika Ewald Jun 18 $50 +$5 +10%
ITF Bolszewo: Martina Capurro Taborda vs Barbara Straszewska Jun 18 $50 +$9 +17%
ITF Lourinha: Francisco Rocha vs Fabrizio Andaloro Jun 18 $50 +$10 +20%
ITF Luque: Romina Ccuno vs Emily Zornada Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Blois: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Amandine Hesse Jun 18 $50 +$7 +13%
ITF San Gregorio: Agnese Gentili vs Natalija Senic Jun 18 $50 +$3 +6%
ITF Milano: Stefano D'agostino vs Georgii Kravchenko Jun 18 $100 +$12 +12%
ITF Ystad: Rebecca Munk Mortensen vs Madison Sieg Jun 18 $50 +$10 +20%
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Arribage/Olivetti Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Haskovo: Gina Feistel vs Ilinca Dalina Amariei Jun 18 $50 +$14 +27%
ITF Klosters: Tina Manescu vs Adrienn Nagy Jun 18 $50 +$7 +13%
ITF Klosters: Pedro Sakamoto vs Tanguy Genier Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
ITF Ystad: Valentina Ivanov vs Isabel Skoog Jun 18 $27 −$26 -98%
Set Handicap: O'Connell (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5) Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
ITF Zhengzhou: Chenting Zhu vs Jia-Jing Lu Jun 18 $55 −$49 -89%
Mao Mushika vs. Yu-Chen Lin: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$47 +93%
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Jiaqi Wang Jun 18 $50 +$14 +27%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Petja Drame vs Karine Sarkisova Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
ITF Irvine: Yulia Zhytelna vs Midori Castillo Meza Jun 17 $50 +$7 +14%
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
ITF Tulsa: Jonah Braswell vs Nicolas Arseneault Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF San Gregorio: Michelle Kelly Tikhonko vs Amy Stevens Jun 17 $15 +$1 +10%
ITF Mohammedia: Yasmine Kabbaj vs Luna Vujovic Jun 17 $51 +$29 +57%
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Vasco Leote Prata Jun 17 $14 −$14 -97%
ITF Lourinha: Tiago Torres vs Zach Stephens Jun 17 $50 +$3 +6%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $50 +$20 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Blinkova vs. Putintseva: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 51¢ $51 2h
Anna Blinkova vs. Yulia Putintseva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 51¢ $51 2h
ITF Taipei: Haruka Kaji vs Yuno Kitahara BUY Haruka Kaji 90¢ $50 8h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $51 9h
ITF Irvine: Bryce Nakashima vs Ronit Karki BUY Bryce Nakashima 58¢ $49 9h
ITF Tulsa: Gavin Young vs Maximus Dussault BUY Gavin Young 92¢ $50 18h
Halle Open (Doubles): Galloway/Peers vs Arribage/Olivetti BUY Arribage/Olivetti 61¢ $51 19h
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) BUY Eala 52¢ $51 19h
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) BUY Zverev 57¢ $51 20h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 50¢ $51 21h
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Bartunkova (+1.5) BUY Sabalenka 71¢ $50 21h
ITF Milano: Georgii Kravchenko vs Giuseppe La Vela BUY Georgii Kravchenko 75¢ $50 21h
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) BUY Collignon 41¢ $51 22h
Set Handicap: Frodin (-1.5) vs Wobker (+1.5) BUY Frodin 68¢ $50 24h
ITF Klosters: Dylan Dietrich vs Adrien Burdet BUY Dylan Dietrich 77¢ $50 26h
ITF Samobor: Nikita Mashtakov vs Nicolas Jadoun BUY Nikita Mashtakov 89¢ $50 26h
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Hunter Heck BUY Naoya Honda 49¢ $51 29h
ITF Taipei: Yuno Kitahara vs Thasaporn Naklo BUY Thasaporn Naklo 63¢ $51 32h
ITF Irvine: Kenta Miyoshi vs Benjamin O'connell BUY Kenta Miyoshi 90¢ $50 34h
ITF Irvine: Patsy Daughters vs Alina Shcherbinina BUY Alina Shcherbinina 93¢ $50 40h
ITF Tulsa: Maximus Dussault vs Ozan Baris BUY Ozan Baris 86¢ $50 42h
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Yushan Shao BUY Yushan Shao $9 42h
ITF Tulsa: Ilyas Milad Fahim vs Jeffrey John Wolf BUY Jeffrey John Wolf 89¢ $50 44h
ITF Bolszewo: Maja Pawelska vs Weronika Ewald BUY Weronika Ewald 91¢ $50 45h
ITF Luque: Romina Ccuno vs Emily Zornada BUY Emily Zornada 32¢ $51 46h
ITF Blois: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Amandine Hesse BUY Alevtina Ibragimova 88¢ $50 47h
ITF San Gregorio: Agnese Gentili vs Natalija Senic BUY Natalija Senic 94¢ $50 2d
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Arribage/Olivetti BUY Cash/Tracy 42¢ $51 2d
ITF Milano: Stefano D'agostino vs Georgii Kravchenko BUY Georgii Kravchenko 89¢ $50 2d
ITF Milano: Stefano D'agostino vs Georgii Kravchenko BUY Georgii Kravchenko 89¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $236.57 · official $236.57 (match) · 880 history records