Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:40:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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66 0x66ad…cc4e crypto 313 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 83d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,168 (-0%) realized −$7,814 · open +$6,646
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate82%245W / 53L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$5,236per market
Trades / day38.3pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$88,122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 83d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$11,202
other 5% +$20,275
world 1% +$1,760
politics 1% +$882
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +1.1% -8.5% 77% 23% -5.9%
≤30d 72 +13.3% +2.5% 68% 24% -25.7%
≤90d 298 +18.6% +7.3% 82% 26% -8.8%
all 298 +18.6% +7.3% 82% 26% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.3% 26% -8.8%
10% -3.0% 13% -17.5%
15% ← realistic here -12.3% 6% -25.5%
20% -20.9% 4% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$8,125) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +35% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$462 vs −$2,040 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$88,122
Realized−$7,814
Unrealized+$6,646
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses245 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions15
Markets (closed)298 / 313
History coverage83d ⚠
Avg bet$5,236
Trades / day38.3
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 298 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 59¢ 58¢ $17,148 $17,065 −$83 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 71¢ 72¢ $15,955 $16,113 +$158 (+1%)
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 88¢ 83¢ $13,250 $12,450 −$800 (-6%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No 48¢ 45¢ $9,500 $9,000 −$500 (-5%)
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 74¢ 78¢ $7,461 $7,763 +$301 (+4%)
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 50¢ 74¢ $3,099 $4,592 +$1,493 (+48%)
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? Yes 35¢ 69¢ $1,750 $3,449 +$1,699 (+97%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 29¢ 32¢ $2,900 $3,150 +$250 (+9%)
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 60¢ 64¢ $2,560 $2,752 +$192 (+7%)
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 26¢ 54¢ $1,300 $2,700 +$1,400 (+108%)
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? Yes 21¢ 48¢ $1,050 $2,425 +$1,375 (+131%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? No 95¢ 96¢ $1,900 $1,913 +$13 (+1%)
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes 14¢ 35¢ $700 $1,750 +$1,050 (+150%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Yes 88¢ 84¢ $1,760 $1,680 −$80 (-5%)
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 74¢ 86¢ $1,142 $1,319 +$177 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $734 +$265 +36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $1,375 +$75 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $371 +$300 +81%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $1,850 +$187 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $9,800 +$189 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $9,496 +$229 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $9,439 +$539 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,718 −$821 -48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $2,798 +$202 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 17 $8,800 +$1,010 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $193 −$160 -83%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $2,880 +$120 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $692 −$139 -20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $202 +$6 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $842 +$157 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $3,723 +$277 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $902 +$98 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,169 +$331 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,661 +$339 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $4,242 +$225 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $5,034 +$415 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $713 −$408 -57%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1,916 +$286 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $3,325 +$175 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $813 −$802 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $4,765 +$235 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $814 +$275 +34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $802 +$198 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $3,473 +$165 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $327 +$23 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 04 $811 −$755 -93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 04 $17,181 −$11,917 -69%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $6,751 −$6,123 -91%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $9,800 −$7,957 -81%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $4,775 −$4,052 -85%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $9,800 −$9,625 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $2,607 −$2,549 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $9,800 +$200 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $9,760 −$760 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $4,727 −$4,089 -86%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? Jun 01 $1,792 +$1,205 +67%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $18,833 +$2,197 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $1,860 +$140 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? May 30 $1,830 +$56 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30? May 30 $16,102 +$106 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29? May 29 $4,647 +$453 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? May 29 $1,821 +$111 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $4,050 +$756 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30? May 29 $4,450 −$4,002 -90%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 29 $18,069 +$1,035 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 88¢ $1,742 38m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 95¢ $469 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 88¢ $18 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 95¢ $1,436 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Up 96¢ $124 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Up 96¢ $15 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Up 96¢ $3 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Up 96¢ $50 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Up 96¢ $125 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Up 96¢ $10 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Up 96¢ $10 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Up 96¢ $10 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Up 96¢ $17 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Up 96¢ $10 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Up 96¢ $19 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Up 96¢ $7 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Up 96¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Up 96¢ $19 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Up 96¢ $251 37h
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $2,748 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Up 53¢ $364 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Up 53¢ $7 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $156 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $9,989 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 74¢ $378 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 70¢ $23 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 94¢ $859 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 70¢ $332 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 94¢ $516 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $7,476 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88,122.23 · official $88,121.82 (match) · 3500 history records