Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:35:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x66b1…da6e world 61 markets active 0h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,691 (-3%) realized −$3,380 · open −$1,311
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate60%34W / 23L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,048per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$3,271now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$739
7 days−$1,613
14 days−$4,833
30 days−$3,676
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 98% −$3,659
crypto 1% −$672
other 1% −$970
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -1.0% -10.5% 33% 17% -11.4%
≤30d 22 -4.2% -13.4% 50% 18% -11.6%
≤90d 57 -7.5% -16.3% 60% 35% -11.7%
all 57 -7.5% -16.3% 60% 35% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 35% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 18% -20.1%
15% -31.6% 11% -27.8%
20% -38.3% 2% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$2,114) neutral
Persistence
early -8% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$149 vs −$394 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$3,271
Realized−$3,380
Unrealized−$1,311
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses34 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)57 / 61
History coverage61d
Avg bet$3,048
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $2,134 $2,133 −$1 (-0%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 95¢ $1,130 $1,135 +$4 (+0%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? No 22¢ 0¢ $1,317 $3 −$1,314 (-100%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? No 90¢ 91¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $2,114 −$99 -5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 18 $10,903 −$6 -0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $10,881 +$1,441 +13%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 17 $7,907 −$2,074 -26%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $3,000 −$116 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $213 +$19 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $5,877 +$936 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $269 −$20 -7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $4,810 +$24 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $1,828 −$48 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $28,036 −$1,659 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 12 $3,800 −$11 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $3,000 +$20 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $20,515 −$2,134 -10%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $1,450 −$838 -58%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $20,594 +$502 +2%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 08 $1,500 −$970 -65%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $1,000 +$201 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $8,346 +$486 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $19,743 +$35 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $6,024 +$491 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 22 $989 +$145 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 10 $1,000 +$104 +10%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? May 06 $91 −$29 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 01 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 01 $13 +$5 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 01 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 27 $100 −$68 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 27 $72 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 27 $63 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 27 $100 −$38 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 27 $75 +$30 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 27 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 26 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 26 $32 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Apr 26 $286 −$3 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 26 $53 −$48 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 26 $52 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 26 $42 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 26 $35 +$7 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 26 $33 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 26 $29 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 26 $19 +$9 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 26 $14 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 26 $140 −$140 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 26 $70 +$28 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 26 $63 +$63 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 26 $50 +$11 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 26 $60 −$60 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $204 20m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $17 21m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $15 21m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $17 21m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $416 22m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $1 22m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $7 22m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $282 22m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $31 22m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $58 23m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $6 24m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $35 24m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $12 25m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $15 25m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $81 25m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $149 25m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $15 30m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $23 30m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $595 31m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $37 35m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $257 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $27 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $1,830 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $1,445 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $97 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $770 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $940 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 90¢ $943 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $1,102 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $190 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,270.70 · official $3,270.95 (match) · 571 history records