Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:58:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x66b1…0d66 world 120 markets active 2h ago coverage 315d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate35%42W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$5
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% +$2
world 26% −$2
politics 20% −$8
economics 10% $0
sports 8% $0
crypto 6% +$5
finance 1% −$9
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +3.4% -6.4% 20% 20% -8.0%
≤30d 24 -0.5% -9.9% 29% 4% -10.2%
≤90d 80 -0.2% -9.7% 31% 4% -9.9%
all 120 +0.4% -9.2% 35% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 5% -9.8%
10% -17.8% 2% -18.4%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

315d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses42 / 78
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)120 / 120
History coverage315d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 120 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 21 $25 +$4 +17%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $53 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $71 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $67 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $2 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $26 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $26 +$1 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $25 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $25 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $21 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $78 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $117 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $52 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $27 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $54 −$5 -9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $26 +$2 +9%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $65 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $39 −$9 -23%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $72 −$1 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $69 $0 -0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $1 $0 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 20 $37 −$3 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $115 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 15 $38 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $41 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 11 $60 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $2 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 10 $2 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 09 $39 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 08 $39 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 02 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $118 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $3 $0 -7%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $88 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $46 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $120 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $89 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $42 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $93 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $40 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 16 $75 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $4 $0 -4%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 13 $40 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 27¢ $30 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $25 4h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $25 32h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $25 34h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $25 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $25 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $25 4d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $28 4d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $28 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $17 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $17 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $25 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $25 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $2 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 5¢ $2 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $14 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $10 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $26 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $26 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $26 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $28 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $28 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 33¢ $26 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 32¢ $20 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 32¢ $6 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $5 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $21 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $5 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $21 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 501 history records