Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:48:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x66b1…04ea world 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 305d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate35%13W / 24L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$4
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$2
other 19% +$1
politics 16% −$1
culture 8% +$1
sports 6% $0
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 +0.1% -9.4% 9% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 11 +0.1% -9.4% 9% 0% -9.0%
all 37 -1.1% -10.5% 35% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 3% -9.2%
10% -19.1% 0% -17.9%
15% -26.9% 0% -25.8%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

305d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses13 / 24
Open positions2
Markets (closed)37 / 39
History coverage305d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 81¢ 82¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 58¢ 44¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $45 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $48 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $95 +$4 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $42 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $46 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jan 31 $4 −$1 -19%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 31 $3 $0 -6%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Dec 29 $42 $0 +1%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 12 $18 $0 +3%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 06 $23 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $7 $0 +6%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $9 +$1 +12%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Oct 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Oct 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Oct 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 01 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $28 $0 -1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 28 $29 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 26 $2 −$1 -39%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 20 $39 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31? Aug 20 $39 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 20 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $49 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $45 6h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $22 9h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $23 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $3 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $16 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $35 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 25h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 25h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $17 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $32 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $50 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $34 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $34 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $15 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $15 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $10 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $49 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $49 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $50 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $46 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $18 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.26 · official $50.02 (match) · 211 history records