Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:17:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x66b2…0fdf sports 366 markets active 0h ago coverage 128d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 127d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$20,965 (-10%) realized −$20,963 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%190W / 175L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$566per market
Trades / day24.7pace
Fees−$260est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$119
7 days+$464
14 days+$1,270
30 days−$71,122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$20,882
crypto 38% +$2,602
finance 3% −$15
other 2% +$223
world 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -28.8% -35.6% 39% 35% -0.1%
≤30d 224 -48.6% -53.5% 28% 26% -75.7%
≤90d 244 -39.2% -45.0% 34% 32% -73.0%
all 365 -2.3% -11.6% 52% 49% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 49% -17.4%
10% -20.0% 45% -25.3%
15% ← realistic here -27.8% 40% -32.5%
20% -34.8% 33% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -70% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +55% → late -60% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$352 vs −$486 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized−$20,963
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses190 / 175
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$260
Open positions1
Markets (closed)365 / 366
History coverage128d ⚠
Avg bet$566
Trades / day24.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 365 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $396 +$204 +52%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $26 −$25 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $102 +$168 +165%
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $402 +$58 +14%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $169 −$167 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $155 −$153 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $253 +$130 +52%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $111 −$110 -99%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $61 −$60 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $97 −$96 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $405 +$246 +61%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $21 $0 +2%
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) Jun 19 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $77 −$75 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $203 +$251 +124%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $405 +$273 +67%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 3 Panama? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $122 −$120 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $161 −$160 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $91 −$90 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$110 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $353 +$169 +48%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$314 +307%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $151 −$150 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 15 $46 +$64 +139%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $205 +$637 +312%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $304 +$296 +97%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $250 −$249 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $416 +$84 +20%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $55 −$54 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $204 +$96 +47%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $216 +$184 +85%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $211 −$208 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $101 +$199 +197%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $122 −$120 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $164 +$136 +83%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $203 +$205 +101%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 09 $26 −$25 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $152 6m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $396 20h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 25h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $102 29h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $20 31h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $149 31h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 59¢ $20 34h
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 87¢ $402 34h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 2d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 2d
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 2d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 40¢ $102 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 40¢ $61 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 20¢ $41 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $97 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 14¢ $21 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $202 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 3d
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) BUY Athletics 62¢ $101 3d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 3d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $77 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.20 · official $148.20 (match) · 3500 history records