Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:34:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
66 0x66b4…d19f other 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,950 (-49%) realized −$1,944 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$236per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$373now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$780
7 days+$780
14 days+$684
30 days+$373
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$407
economics 38% −$1,544
crypto 1% −$30
sports 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-39.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +124.8% +103.4% 100% 100% +103.4%
≤30d 11 -27.5% -34.4% 27% 27% +6.7%
≤90d 11 -27.5% -34.4% 27% 27% +6.7%
all 12 -33.5% -39.9% 25% 25% -38.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.9% 25% -38.8%
10% -45.6% 25% -44.7%
15% -50.9% 25% -50.0%
20% -55.7% 17% -54.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$302 vs −$231 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$373
Realized−$1,944
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)12 / 17
History coverage152d
Avg bet$236
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $250 $248 −$2 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $34 $50 +$16 (+46%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $45 $29 −$16 (-35%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $625 +$780 +125%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $762 −$51 -7%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $71 −$16 -23%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $304 −$300 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$81 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $31 −$30 -96%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Jan 29 $1,544 −$1,544 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 3m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 4m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $50 5m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 21m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 22¢ $103 47m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 43¢ $398 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 22¢ $18 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 7d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 7d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 8d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 8d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 98¢ $650 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 17¢ $48 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $31 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $71 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 15d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 47¢ $55 15d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 15d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 15d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $71 15d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $372.80 · official $372.80 (match) · 65 history records