Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:18:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
66 0x66b6…6c31 world 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+2%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate59%24W / 17L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$5
other 26% −$2
sports 9% +$15
weather 4% $0
politics 4% +$1
crypto 3% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.0% -8.6% 83% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 19 +0.3% -9.3% 58% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 19 +0.3% -9.3% 58% 0% -8.9%
all 41 +1.5% -8.2% 59% 2% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 2% -8.2%
10% -17.0% 2% -16.9%
15% -25.0% 2% -25.0%
20% -32.4% 2% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.58 per $1 lost it wins $3.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses24 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage475d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $55 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 20 $55 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $55 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $59 +$1 +2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $74 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 04 $50 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $50 +$2 +3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $51 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $114 +$3 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $131 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $5 $0 +7%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $36 $0 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $20 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $2 $0 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $49 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $30 −$3 -9%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 11 $2 $0 +3%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 11 $2 $0 +3%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Dec 11 $2 $0 +3%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $1 $0 +8%
Ethereum above $2,800 on May 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Jayson Tatum play in Game 5? May 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? Mar 31 $31 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 67°F or higher on March 30? Mar 31 $16 $0 +2%
Will Solana dip to $110 in March? Mar 30 $2 −$1 -28%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Mar 30 $13 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 29 $31 $0 -0%
Will Olaf Scholz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 28 $31 $0 +0%
Will 'Snow White' gross more than 49m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $31 −$2 -7%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Mar 23 $2 $0 -22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 65°F or higher on March 22? Mar 22 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $87000 on Mar 21? Mar 21 $33 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Crooked Joe" or "Sleepy Joe" during Digital Asset Summ Mar 21 $31 +$1 +2%
Sabres vs. Canadiens Mar 20 $16 +$16 +96%
UL Monroe vs. Louisiana Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Jets vs. Islanders Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Eastern Michigan vs. Ohio Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Sacramento State vs. Portland State Mar 03 $18 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $6 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $15 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $35 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $43 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $12 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $56 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $41 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $14 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 74¢ $55 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $55 37h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 90¢ $60 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 88¢ $59 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $23 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $28 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $13 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $6 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $17 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $34 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $52 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $50 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $50 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $19 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $33 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 146 history records