Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:37:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x66b7…b496 sports 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$140 (+30%) realized +$129 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate55%23W / 19L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$129
14 days+$129
30 days+$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$116
other 8% +$15
crypto 3% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -2.1% -11.4% 55% 50% +16.8%
≤30d 42 -2.1% -11.4% 55% 50% +16.8%
≤90d 42 -2.1% -11.4% 55% 50% +16.8%
all 42 -2.1% -11.4% 55% 50% +16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 50% +16.8%
10% -19.9% 43% +5.6%
15% -27.6% 43% -4.6%
20% -34.7% 43% -14.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 60% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +29% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$6 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.1 per $1 lost it wins $2.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$129
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses23 / 19
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)42 / 45
History coverage6d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Hurricanes 51¢ 52¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? No 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Under 57¢ 34¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +52%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$6 +109%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +97%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 14 $6 +$7 +109%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 177.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 +$9 +172%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +90%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $7 +$1 +12%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7 +$6 +86%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $7 +$1 +20%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$8 +152%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $6 +$4 +62%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $5 +$4 +86%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $7 +$1 +9%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $7 +$7 +101%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $7 +$5 +76%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $7 +$1 +16%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $7 +$7 +98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $7 +$9 +129%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $14 +$10 +69%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $5 +$5 +93%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $182 +$138 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $5 47m
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $5 59m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 57¢ $5 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 17h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5 17h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 19h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 55¢ $7 20h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $5 20h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 46¢ $7 21h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $5 21h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 48¢ $5 21h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 89¢ $7 21h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 50¢ $7 23h
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Indiana Fever 83¢ $7 24h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $5 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 53¢ $7 24h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 24h
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire BUY Dallas Wings 64¢ $5 24h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 52¢ $5 25h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 91¢ $7 25h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 61¢ $6 25h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $7 25h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 47¢ $6 25h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 57¢ $5 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 25h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 53¢ $5 25h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $7 26h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 44¢ $7 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY No 70¢ $7 37h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 177.5 BUY Under 49¢ $7 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.28 · official $15.28 (match) · 123 history records