Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:10:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
66 0x66bc…25c9 sports 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,341 (-42%) realized −$1,618 · open −$723
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate30%10W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$680now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$428
7 days+$344
14 days+$344
30 days+$344
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$2,498
sports 35% −$305
other 17% +$22
politics 2% −$71
crypto 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-51.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -41.0% -46.6% 33% 27% +11.5%
≤30d 30 -41.0% -46.6% 33% 27% +11.5%
≤90d 30 -41.0% -46.6% 33% 27% +11.5%
all 33 -46.3% -51.4% 30% 24% -58.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.4% 24% -58.5%
10% -56.1% 18% -62.5%
15% -60.3% 15% -66.1%
20% -64.2% 15% -69.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$123 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$680
Realized−$1,618
Unrealized−$723
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses10 / 23
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions17
Markets (closed)33 / 51
History coverage138d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Yes 34¢ 30¢ $172 $148 −$25 (-14%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $252 $144 −$108 (-43%)
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 72¢ 76¢ $108 $113 +$5 (+5%)
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Elina Svitolina 67¢ 66¢ $100 $100 −$1 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jiri Lehecka 64¢ 64¢ $96 $97 +$1 (+1%)
Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $110 $39 −$71 (-65%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 15¢ $18 $15 −$2 (-13%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-8%)
Dota 2: Nande+4 vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Nande+4 73¢ 50¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-31%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Africa" before 2027? No 88¢ 85¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 61¢ 59¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 Under 20¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 54¢ 0¢ $162 $0 −$162 (-100%)
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Spain 38¢ 0¢ $95 $0 −$95 (-100%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 58¢ 0¢ $145 $0 −$145 (-100%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Over 37¢ 0¢ $92 $0 −$92 (-100%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 35¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $94 +$56 +60%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $264 +$236 +90%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $67 −$66 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $35 −$34 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $49 +$31 +65%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $38 +$12 +32%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $98 +$9 +10%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $137 +$163 +119%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $27 −$27 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +18%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $102 +$155 +152%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $8 +$2 +20%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $108 −$3 -3%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 13 $140 +$14 +10%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 13 $100 $0 -0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 12 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $25 −$24 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $7 −$7 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 28 $1,498 −$1,498 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? Jan 28 $750 −$750 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026? Jan 28 $250 −$250 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $25 1h
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2h
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 38¢ $97 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 37¢ $94 2h
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 4h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 58¢ $147 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $164 5h
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 5h
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $42 5h
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $80 5h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 15h
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 15h
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 15h
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 15h
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 15h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 66¢ $67 16h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 23¢ $35 16h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $49 18h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $264 18h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Elina Svitolina 67¢ $101 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $6 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $6 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $7 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $7 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $7 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $26 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $21 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $16 24h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya SELL Elina Svitolina 66¢ $98 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $680.11 · official $680.11 (match) · 128 history records