Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:24:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x66bc…c078 crypto 510 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$539 (-6%) realized −$533 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%254W / 255L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$32
14 days+$32
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$721
other 5% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +21.7% +10.1% 60% 60% -3.3%
≤30d 5 +21.7% +10.1% 60% 60% -3.3%
≤90d 509 -3.3% -12.5% 50% 50% -16.6%
all 509 -3.3% -12.5% 50% 50% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 50% -16.6%
10% -20.9% 50% -24.6%
15% -28.5% 50% -31.9%
20% -35.5% 48% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$17 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$533
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses254 / 255
Open positions1
Markets (closed)509 / 510
History coverage56d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 509 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 38¢ 34¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 253 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $201 −$9 -4%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$23 +23%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 −$6 -6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$17 +34%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 06 $34 +$25 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 06 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 06 $16 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 06 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 06 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 06 $3 +$3 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 06 $12 +$11 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 06 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 06 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 06 $5 +$7 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 06 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 06 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 05 $28 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 05 $37 −$36 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 05 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 05 $24 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 05 $23 +$30 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 05 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 05 $13 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 05 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 05 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 05 $26 +$21 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 05 $9 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 05 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 05 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 05 $3 +$3 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 05 $3 +$3 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 05 $8 +$15 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 05 $5 +$7 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 05 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 05 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 05 $7 +$5 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 05 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 05 $6 +$6 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 05 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 05 $7 +$4 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 05 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 05 $15 +$9 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 05 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 05 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 05 $31 +$16 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 05 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 38¢ $51 10m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 84¢ $192 14m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 87¢ $201 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 100¢ $123 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 81¢ $101 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 56¢ $95 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 74¢ $50 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $59 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $34 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $27 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $16 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $24 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $12 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $6 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $6 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $28 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $37 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $20 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.08 · official $53.29 · 785 history records