Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:02:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
66 0x66bd…0328 sports 95 markets active 0h ago coverage 406d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$179 (+7%) realized +$178 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%38W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$74
7 days+$128
14 days+$210
30 days+$230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% +$295
politics 34% −$35
sports 30% +$52
culture 1% +$10
world 1% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +15.2% +4.2% 55% 55% +17.2%
≤30d 59 +17.2% +6.0% 53% 53% +10.8%
≤90d 67 +15.5% +4.5% 52% 52% +18.0%
all 73 +11.8% +1.2% 52% 52% +3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.2% 52% +3.4%
10% -8.5% 51% -6.5%
15% -17.4% 49% -15.5%
20% -25.5% 47% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$22 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

406d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$178
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses38 / 35
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions4
Markets (closed)73 / 95
History coverage406d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 22¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+55%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Algeria vs. Austria: Neither team to score first? Yes 23¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Luis Díaz: 3+ shots Jun 28 $12 +$17 +136%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 +$9 +93%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 +$8 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $30 +$11 +36%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 +$17 +165%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $31 +$39 +129%
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $10 +$12 +119%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 +$31 +154%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Jun 24 $10 +$12 +119%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 +$18 +60%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $20 +$35 +172%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $40 +$23 +57%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 21 $20 −$1 -7%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $3 +$6 +186%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$9 +89%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$20 +67%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 +$7 +134%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Jun 20 $10 +$9 +85%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $3 +$13 +431%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 +$9 +90%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Colombia to score first vs. Uzbekistan? Jun 18 $10 +$18 +177%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$36 +70%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$21 +206%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$11 +105%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$20 +200%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$53 +52%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $110 −$100 -91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 3m
Algeria vs. Austria: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 87¢ $28 1h
Luis Díaz: 3+ shots BUY Yes 40¢ $2 3h
Luis Díaz: 3+ shots BUY Yes 42¢ $10 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 54¢ $6 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 42¢ $5 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 73¢ $30 4h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY 27¢ $5 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 51¢ $10 10h
Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? AND Will Algeria vs. Austria en BUY 35¢ $10 10h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06 BUY 19¢ $5 10h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 19h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 19h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 19h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND England leading at halftime? BUY 58¢ $10 19h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 41¢ $10 27h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 27h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 42¢ $10 27h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-0 BUY 19¢ $5 28h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 28h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $10 2d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 AND Will United States win on 2026- BUY 34¢ $10 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY 39¢ $20 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to S BUY 37¢ $10 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 31¢ $10 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 49¢ $20 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 28¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.73 · official $45.54 · 144 history records