Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:37:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
66 0x66be…cf24 crypto 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$24 (-4%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate92%11W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -2.0% -11.4% 92% 25% -7.3%
≤30d 12 -2.0% -11.4% 92% 25% -7.3%
≤90d 12 -2.0% -11.4% 92% 25% -7.3%
all 12 -2.0% -11.4% 92% 25% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 25% -7.3%
10% -19.8% 8% -16.2%
15% -27.6% 0% -24.3%
20% -34.7% 0% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$24 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses11 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $17 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$14 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$4 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 24 history records