Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:30:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x66c0…847d other 179 markets active 2d ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$14 (-5%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate8%15W / 164L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$5
tech 19% −$4
world 16% $0
politics 15% −$1
crypto 5% −$1
finance 4% $0
sports 3% −$2
culture 1% $0
weather 1% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.0% -11.3% 0% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 35 -1.4% -10.8% 3% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 112 -7.2% -16.1% 11% 1% -14.5%
all 179 -6.4% -15.3% 8% 1% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 1% -14.0%
10% -23.4% 0% -22.3%
15% -30.8% 0% -29.8%
20% -37.6% 0% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses15 / 164
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)179 / 179
History coverage220d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 179 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $7.00 and $8.00 on June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 -0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Ornn B200 Index be less than $4.00 on June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 -1%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 11 $5 $0 -1%
GMGN FDV above $4B one day after launch Jun 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? Jun 09 $1 $0 -5%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -1%
Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor? Jun 08 $1 $0 -1%
Will there be 14 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw Jun 06 $2 $0 -1%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Jun 06 $2 $0 -1%
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 -3%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 -0%
Will Luis Carlos Heinze win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election Jun 04 $2 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 -1%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jun 01 $1 $0 -1%
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? Jun 01 $1 $0 -0%
Will Citigroup or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead May 30 $1 $0 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? May 30 $1 $0 -0%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele May 29 $2 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by May 31, 2026? May 29 $2 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? May 28 $4 $0 -0%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele May 27 $1 $0 -2%
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 26 $1 $0 -3%
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? May 26 $1 $0 -1%
Probable FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 25 $1 $0 -9%
Will Alaska Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31? May 23 $2 $0 -1%
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? May 23 $2 $0 -1%
Will Tuyo launch a token by June 30, 2026? May 22 $1 $0 -2%
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by May 31? May 22 $2 $0 +1%
Will "Habibti" - Drake debut week album sales be less than 80k? May 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will Latvia win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 19 $1 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $1 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 19 be less May 18 $1 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 16 $2 $0 -1%
Over $1B crypto hack value in 2026? May 16 $3 $0 -2%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 15 $1 $0 -0%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? May 13 $2 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 13 $2 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will Keenan Hayes win Bareback Riding at The American Rodeo 2026 Champ May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Betmoar FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 09 $1 $0 -19%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 09 $2 $0 -0%
Will paiN Gaming win IEM Atlanta 2026? May 08 $1 $0 -3%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? May 08 $1 $0 -1%
Will Anca Dragu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 07 $1 $0 -2%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 07 $7 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? May 06 $1 $0 -2%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? May 06 $1 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $7.00 and $8.00 on June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1 2d
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $7.00 and $8.00 on June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $1 2d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 2d
Will the Ornn B200 Index be less than $4.00 on June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $1 2d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 2d
Will the Ornn B200 Index be less than $4.00 on June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 2d
Will the Ornn B200 Index be less than $4.00 on June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $1 3d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 3d
Will the Ornn B200 Index be less than $4.00 on June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1 3d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 3d
GMGN FDV above $4B one day after launch SELL No 98¢ $1 4d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 4d
GMGN FDV above $4B one day after launch BUY No 98¢ $1 4d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 4d
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? SELL Yes 92¢ $1 6d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL No 98¢ $1 6d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 99¢ $1 6d
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 6d
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $1 7d
Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor? SELL Yes 97¢ $1 7d
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 7d
Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 7d
Will there be 14 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw SELL No 99¢ $1 9d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $1 9d
Will there be 14 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw BUY No 100¢ $1 9d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $1 9d
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 10d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 589 history records