Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:53:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
66 0x66c1…fa3f politics 655 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 92d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$116,558 (+30%) realized +$155,491 · open −$38,933
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate67%432W / 211L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$591per market
Trades / day30.5pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$93,913now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 92d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 80% +$750
world 14% +$3,043
other 4% +$1,350
sports 1% −$244
tech 0% +$431
crypto 0% +$3,551
culture 0% +$80
finance 0% −$484
economics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -6.6% -15.5% 74% 53% -33.7%
≤30d 116 +13.6% +2.8% 70% 43% +22.0%
≤90d 625 +24.4% +12.6% 67% 42% +9.4%
all 643 +26.4% +14.4% 67% 42% +9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.4% 42% +9.7%
10% ← realistic here +3.4% 33% -0.8%
15% -6.6% 25% -10.4%
20% -15.7% 20% -19.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +40% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$187 vs −$160 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.43 per $1 lost it wins $2.43
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$93,913
Realized+$155,491
Unrealized−$38,933
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses432 / 211
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions13
Markets (closed)643 / 655
History coverage92d ⚠
Avg bet$591
Trades / day30.5
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 643 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 99¢ $25,000 $49,625 +$24,625 (+98%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 85¢ $10,000 $17,090 +$7,090 (+71%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 80¢ $10,000 $15,950 +$5,950 (+60%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 20¢ $10,000 $4,050 −$5,950 (-60%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 15¢ $10,000 $2,910 −$7,090 (-71%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 99¢ $1,000 $1,987 +$987 (+99%)
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June? Yes 63¢ 98¢ $632 $981 +$349 (+55%)
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 1¢ $25,000 $375 −$24,625 (-98%)
Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026? Yes 56¢ 35¢ $571 $356 −$215 (-38%)
Will Trump say "Buy Dell Computer / Buy a Dell Computer" in June? Yes 15¢ 34¢ $115 $253 +$138 (+120%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? Yes 24¢ 29¢ $123 $145 +$23 (+19%)
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? Yes 31¢ 9¢ $209 $60 −$149 (-71%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Yes 45¢ 4¢ $448 $40 −$408 (-91%)
Will Trump praise Mark Rutte by June 30? Yes 72¢ 44¢ $64 $40 −$25 (-38%)
Will Trump praise Delcy Rodriguez by June 30? Yes 18¢ 25¢ $26 $37 +$10 (+40%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 1¢ $1,000 $13 −$987 (-99%)
Will Trump say "Iowa" during Pennsylvania events? Yes 39¢ 7¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump say "Women's Sports" this week? Jun 23 $103 +$26 +25%
Will Trump say "Air Force" this week? Jun 23 $46 +$15 +32%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during Pennsylvania events? Jun 23 $55 +$13 +24%
Will Trump say "President Xi" during Pennsylvania events? Jun 23 $100 +$100 +100%
Will Trump say "Eiffel" during June 24 Rally? Jun 23 $17 +$7 +43%
Will Warsh say "Job Market" during June Press Conference? Jun 18 $267 −$267 -100%
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $342 −$342 -100%
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $214 −$214 -100%
Will Warsh say "Chair" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $61 +$2 +4%
Will Warsh say "Maximum Employment" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $351 +$124 +35%
Will Warsh say "Stable" or "Stability" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $479 +$246 +51%
Will Trump say "Space Force" this week? Jun 17 $297 +$11 +4%
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? Jun 17 $31 +$7 +23%
Will Trump say "UFC" this week? Jun 17 $435 −$435 -100%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? Jun 17 $143 +$4 +3%
Will Trump praise Sheikh Tamim al-Thani by June 30? Jun 17 $77 +$13 +17%
Will Trump praise Emmanuel Macron by June 30? Jun 17 $36 +$4 +11%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" in June? Jun 17 $71 +$1 +2%
Will Trump say "Star" this week? Jun 17 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Trump say "Table" this week? Jun 16 $11 +$20 +180%
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026? Jun 16 $66 −$29 -44%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $536 −$536 -100%
Will Trump praise Dana White by June 30? Jun 15 $30 +$3 +11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $6,094 +$8,906 +146%
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Jun 15 $103 +$190 +184%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $3,533 +$3,467 +98%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 14 $247 −$74 -30%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 14 $42 +$22 +51%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Jun 14 $200 +$257 +129%
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? Jun 14 $12 +$2 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $200 +$5 +2%
Will Trump say "Dumocrat" or "Dumbocrat" or "Dumacrat" during Tele-Ral Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Trump say "Transgender" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $50 +$45 +91%
Will Trump say "Hell" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $65 +$65 +100%
Will Trump say "Operation Epic Fury" this week? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump praise Gianni Infantino by June 30? Jun 11 $1,293 +$352 +27%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $2,438 +$348 +14%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 6? Jun 07 $416 +$184 +44%
Will Trump praise Mark Rutte by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $61 −$58 -96%
Will Trump praise Karoline Leavitt by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $20 −$19 -96%
Will Trump praise Weijia Jiang by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $24 −$23 -96%
Will Trump praise Elon Musk by June 30? Jun 06 $211 +$57 +27%
Will Trump say "Fuel" during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $247 +$19 +8%
Will Trump say "Drug" during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $7 +$7 +100%
Will Trump say "Border" 7+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $70 +$80 +114%
Will Trump say "Egg" during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $153 +$57 +37%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Wisconsin even Jun 05 $252 +$150 +59%
Will Trump say "President Xi" during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $621 +$10 +2%
Will Trump say "Death Tax" during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $579 +$58 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump say "Eiffel" during June 24 Rally? SELL Yes 12¢ $24 1h
Will Trump say "President Xi" during Pennsylvania events? BUY Yes 50¢ $100 3h
Will Trump praise Delcy Rodriguez by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $27 3h
Will Trump say "Hottest" during Pennsylvania events? BUY Yes 80¢ $55 4h
Will Trump say "Women's Sports" this week? BUY Yes 79¢ $103 7h
Will Trump say "Air Force" this week? BUY Yes 75¢ $46 19h
Will Trump say "Iowa" during Pennsylvania events? BUY Yes 39¢ $6 19h
Will Trump say "Eiffel" during June 24 Rally? BUY Yes 8¢ $17 19h
Will Trump say "Buy Dell Computer / Buy a Dell Computer" in June? SELL Yes 72¢ $43 25h
Will Trump praise Mark Rutte by June 30? BUY Yes 72¢ $64 25h
Will Trump say "Buy Dell Computer / Buy a Dell Computer" in June? BUY Yes 15¢ $128 26h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 27h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $13 28h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 30h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 33h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $21 47h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 4d
Will Warsh say "Chair" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 96¢ $61 6d
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 72¢ $155 6d
Will Trump say "Space Force" this week? BUY Yes 98¢ $293 6d
Will Trump say "Space Force" this week? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 6d
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? SELL Yes 94¢ $38 6d
Will Trump say "Star" this week? BUY Yes 8¢ $24 6d
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 73¢ $45 7d
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 76¢ $142 7d
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? BUY Yes 97¢ $143 7d
Will Trump say "Six Seven" in June? BUY Yes 98¢ $71 7d
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? BUY Yes 76¢ $31 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93,913.19 · official $93,913.19 (match) · 3500 history records