Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:59:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
66 0x66c1…2c72 world 340 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$43,067 (+81%) realized +$43,178 · open −$111
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate46%128W / 150L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day58.4pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$6,381now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 56d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$9,625
other 28% +$1,309
politics 10% +$2,378
economics 4% +$578
finance 3% +$1,571
tech 3% −$184
crypto 2% +$1,298
sports 2% −$419
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+32.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +56.2% +41.4% 61% 45% +77.2%
≤30d 180 +27.1% +15.0% 44% 33% +25.7%
≤90d 278 +46.3% +32.4% 46% 34% +25.0%
all 278 +46.3% +32.4% 46% 34% +25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +32.4% 34% +25.0%
10% ← realistic here +19.7% 31% +13.0%
15% +8.1% 25% +2.1%
20% -2.5% 21% -7.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +57% → late +35% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$177 vs −$44 · ×4.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.54 per $1 lost it wins $3.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$6,381
Realized+$43,178
Unrealized−$111
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses128 / 150
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions52
Markets (closed)278 / 340
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$156
Trades / day58.4
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 52 History 278 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? Yes 9¢ 34¢ $283 $1,020 +$737 (+260%)
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $444 $450 +$5 (+1%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 42¢ $156 $415 +$259 (+166%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $235 $361 +$126 (+54%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $386 $357 −$29 (-7%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No 30¢ 32¢ $300 $315 +$15 (+5%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Yes 15¢ 6¢ $581 $260 −$321 (-55%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $248 $245 −$3 (-1%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 27¢ 22¢ $273 $229 −$44 (-16%)
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? Yes 40¢ 42¢ $200 $212 +$12 (+6%)
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Yes 59¢ 79¢ $141 $189 +$48 (+34%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $166 $185 +$19 (+11%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $230 $169 −$61 (-27%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $144 $148 +$4 (+3%)
Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30? Yes 14¢ 27¢ $69 $136 +$67 (+97%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 52¢ 44¢ $156 $130 −$25 (-16%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ 13¢ $280 $130 −$150 (-54%)
Jay Clayton confirmed as Director of National Intelligence by October 31? Yes 85¢ 81¢ $119 $113 −$5 (-5%)
SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30? Tesla 7¢ 2¢ $373 $104 −$269 (-72%)
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026? No 27¢ 20¢ $133 $100 −$33 (-25%)
Will Lebanon sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $86 $95 +$9 (+10%)
Will Oman sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Yes 11¢ 9¢ $110 $90 −$20 (-18%)
Will the Housing for the 21st Century Act become law this year? Yes 82¢ 90¢ $82 $90 +$8 (+9%)
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 25¢ 25¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-1%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? No 17¢ 20¢ $65 $81 +$16 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Kash Patel out by June 30? Jun 19 $250 −$36 -14%
Will USD be between 1.8M and 1.9M Iranian rials on June 30? Jun 19 $190 +$96 +50%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 19 $27 +$99 +370%
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 18 $168 +$10 +6%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $230 −$230 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 18 $52 −$42 -81%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $31 +$8 +26%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $561 +$166 +30%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 17 $119 −$54 -45%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 17 $120 +$120 +100%
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Jun 17 $261 +$17 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $2,236 +$6,322 +283%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 17 $196 +$179 +91%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $68 +$17 +24%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Jun 17 $445 +$40 +9%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $109 −$3 -3%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $295 +$143 +48%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $40 +$47 +118%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $16 −$13 -82%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $385 +$281 +73%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $1,360 +$592 +44%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 16 $0 +$1 +205%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 16 $54 +$51 +94%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $368 +$115 +31%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $33 −$26 -79%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 16 $42 +$102 +241%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $159 +$72 +45%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 16 $47 −$44 -94%
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw Jun 16 $60 +$32 +54%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $573 +$217 +38%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 15 $192 +$1,228 +640%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $62 −$10 -16%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $281 +$18 +6%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $20 +$381 +1903%
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Megaquake by June 30? Jun 15 $0 $0 -5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 15 $523 +$910 +174%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $610 +$379 +62%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $216 +$72 +33%
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $36 −$2 -7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 13 $400 +$8 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $105 −$100 -95%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $19 1h
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $3 2h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $286 2h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 25¢ $44 2h
Kash Patel out by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3h
Will USD be between 1.8M and 1.9M Iranian rials on June 30? SELL No 95¢ $223 3h
Kash Patel out by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 4h
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? BUY Yes 98¢ $445 5h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 26¢ $126 5h
Will Oman sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 5h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $40 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19? SELL Yes 6¢ $56 16h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 16h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19? SELL Yes 5¢ $50 16h
SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30? BUY Tesla 2¢ $2 16h
SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30? BUY Tesla 2¢ $9 16h
Will USD be between 1.8M and 1.9M Iranian rials on June 30? SELL No 97¢ $18 18h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 19h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 21h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 21h
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY Yes 96¢ $120 24h
Will Israel sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY Yes 5¢ $50 24h
Will Lebanon sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY Yes 9¢ $86 24h
Will Oman sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY Yes 11¢ $109 24h
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY Yes 91¢ $48 24h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 46¢ $44 28h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 46¢ $1 28h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 46¢ $1 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,380.58 · official $6,512.18 · 3500 history records