Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:34:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
66 0x66c7…2bcd other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 152d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$42 (+9%) realized +$45 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$16
world 19% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 3 +15.2% +4.2% 100% 67% +3.4%
all 4 +11.1% +0.5% 75% 50% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.5% 50% +0.3%
10% -9.1% 25% -9.3%
15% -17.9% 0% -18.1%
20% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$1 · ×14.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×43.01 per $1 lost it wins $43.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized+$45
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)4 / 10
History coverage152d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-18%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? May 02 $121 +$10 +8%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $97 +$10 +11%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Apr 15 $88 +$24 +27%
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? Feb 13 $89 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $31 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 2h
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $0 58d
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $6 58d
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $25 58d
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $1 58d
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $40 58d
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $4 58d
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $5 58d
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $50 59d
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $14 62d
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $107 62d
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-04-26? BUY Yes 90¢ $97 63d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 75d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 75d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 80¢ $111 75d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 63¢ $88 126d
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $88 136d
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $89 152d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.74 · official $70.74 (match) · 88 history records