Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:15:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
66 0x66cb…3dd2 crypto 710 markets active 2h ago coverage 81d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 81d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$14,903 (+20%) realized +$14,631 · open +$272
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate26%180W / 508L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day34.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$10,157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$277
14 days+$1,299
30 days+$4,916
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$14,927
culture 44% +$2,364
crypto 3% −$25
sports 2% −$717
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-54.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.4% -8.3% 78% 0% -15.9%
≤30d 77 -15.0% -23.1% 60% 19% +4.5%
≤90d 688 -49.4% -54.2% 26% 16% +13.7%
all 688 -49.4% -54.2% 26% 16% +13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -54.2% 16% +13.7%
10% ← realistic here -58.6% 10% +2.8%
15% -62.6% 8% -7.1%
20% -66.3% 6% -16.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt +26% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -53% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$10 · ×11.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.08 per $1 lost it wins $4.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$10,157
Realized+$14,631
Unrealized+$272
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses180 / 508
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions22
Markets (closed)688 / 710
History coverage81d ⚠
Avg bet$107
Trades / day34.3
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 688 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Maternal Instinct" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Yes 89¢ 98¢ $3,323 $3,658 +$336 (+10%)
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $1,348 $1,416 +$68 (+5%)
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Yes 92¢ 98¢ $875 $931 +$56 (+6%)
Will "Maternal Instinct" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Yes 88¢ 99¢ $817 $917 +$101 (+12%)
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $696 $741 +$45 (+7%)
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? No 97¢ 99¢ $582 $597 +$15 (+3%)
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the top global Netflix movie this week? No 96¢ 99¢ $460 $475 +$15 (+3%)
Will "Office Romance" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? No 89¢ 100¢ $269 $302 +$33 (+12%)
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? No 99¢ 99¢ $266 $268 +$2 (+1%)
Will "AMERICA'S SWEETHEARTS: Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders: Season 3" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? No 98¢ 98¢ $244 $245 +$0 (+0%)
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? No 91¢ 90¢ $206 $204 −$2 (-1%)
Will "Maternal Instinct" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? No 95¢ 99¢ $190 $198 +$9 (+5%)
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the top US Netflix movie this week? No 92¢ 99¢ $67 $73 +$5 (+8%)
Will "I Will Find You" be the top US Netflix show this week? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $43 $44 +$1 (+3%)
Will "I Will Find You" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? No 95¢ 98¢ $38 $39 +$1 (+3%)
Will "Maternal Instinct" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? No 89¢ 99¢ $21 $24 +$2 (+11%)
Will "I Will Find You" be the top global Netflix show this week? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $11 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will "Sweet Magnolias: Season 5" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? No 94¢ 92¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will "Percy Jackson & the Olympians: The Lightning Thief" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? No 94¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $413 $2 −$412 (-100%)
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the top US Netflix show this week? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-96%)
Will "AMERICA'S SWEETHEARTS: Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders: Season 3" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "The Boroughs" be the top global Netflix show this week? Jun 22 $182 +$18 +10%
Will "Office Romance" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $614 −$162 -26%
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $39 +$4 +10%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we Jun 16 $103 +$6 +6%
Will "The Witness" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $8 $0 +6%
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $2,421 −$180 -7%
Will "The Boroughs" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $65 +$2 +3%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the #2 US Netflix show this wee Jun 16 $76 +$4 +5%
Will "Sweet Magnolias: Season 5" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $439 +$30 +7%
Will "The Witness" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 09 $281 +$26 +9%
Will "David" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $32 +$1 +2%
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $992 +$1,393 +140%
Will "Ladies First" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $36 +$6 +17%
Will "The Murder of Rachel Nickell" be the #2 global Netflix movie thi Jun 09 $272 +$128 +47%
Will "Ladies First" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $133 +$12 +9%
Will "Office Romance" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $38 +$4 +11%
Will "The Witness" be the top global Netflix show this week? Jun 09 $76 +$4 +5%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top global Netflix show thi Jun 09 $1 $0 +7%
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $553 +$35 +6%
Will "Apex" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 03 $27 −$25 -95%
Will "Apex" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 03 $12 −$11 -94%
Will "Unchosen" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 03 $5 −$4 -91%
Will "Apex" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 03 $54 −$48 -89%
Will "Swapped" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 03 $4 −$4 -95%
Will "The Roast of Kevin Hart" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 03 $307 −$221 -72%
Will "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the #2 global Netflix show this Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this Jun 03 $30 −$29 -96%
Will "Ladies First" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 03 $24 −$23 -98%
Will "The Boroughs" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 03 $117 −$115 -98%
Will "Worst Ex Ever: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this week Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Should I Marry A Murderer?" be the top US Netflix show this week Jun 03 $57 −$11 -18%
Will "Swapped" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Jun 03 $119 −$92 -77%
Will "Remarkably Bright Creatures" be the #2 global Netflix movie this Jun 03 $339 −$139 -41%
Will "Remarkably Bright Creatures" be the top US Netflix movie this we Jun 03 $78 −$78 -100%
Will "Remarkably Bright Creatures" be the top US Netflix movie this we Jun 03 $4,820 −$803 -17%
Will "GOAT" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Jun 03 $76 −$75 -98%
Will "The Crash" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 03 $47 −$47 -99%
Will "Worst Ex Ever: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 03 $446 −$384 -86%
Will "The Boroughs" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 03 $199 −$191 -96%
Will "Ladies First" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 03 $186 −$186 -100%
Will "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the #2 US Netflix show this week Jun 03 $771 −$771 -100%
Will "Swapped" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 03 $603 −$538 -89%
Will "Man on Fire" be the top global Netflix show this week? Jun 03 $187 −$184 -98%
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 02 $124 +$87 +71%
Will "The Boroughs" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 02 $6,822 +$815 +12%
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 02 $301 +$591 +196%
Will "Nemesis" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 02 $1,863 +$5,933 +318%
Will "Nemesis" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 02 $227 +$201 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY No 96¢ $10 2h
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY No 88¢ $132 2h
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY No 98¢ $68 2h
Will "AMERICA'S SWEETHEARTS: Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders: Season 3" be BUY No 96¢ $67 2h
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY No 97¢ $68 2h
Will "I Will Find You" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY No 95¢ $38 3h
Will "I Will Find You" be the top US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 97¢ $26 4h
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? SELL Yes 15¢ $18 5h
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the top global Netflix movie this we BUY No 96¢ $34 5h
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? SELL Yes 9¢ $12 5h
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 5h
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the top global Netflix movie this we BUY No 97¢ $97 5h
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the top global Netflix movie this we BUY No 97¢ $26 5h
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the top global Netflix movie this we BUY No 97¢ $71 5h
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 6h
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 6h
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 6h
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 6h
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 6h
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the top global Netflix movie this we BUY No 97¢ $36 6h
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 6h
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 6h
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 6h
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 6h
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 6h
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 6h
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 6h
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 6h
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,157.45 · official $10,157.46 (match) · 3500 history records